Tamay Besiroglu's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.89
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tamay Besiroglu bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
- Will Google's Gemini [Ultra] LLM be released in 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?NOṀ60
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?NOṀ25
20%
- Is the Reuters story about OpenAI's Q* substantively true?NOṀ75
- Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2023?NOṀ45
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ40
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%