Tommy gun's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.88
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tommy gun bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- Will Destiny post a video that reaches 400k views before January 28th?YESṀ70
- Will I beat mithrix (final boss, beating the game) in any of my next 5 risk of rain 2 runs?YESṀ50
- Will at least one major glitch be discovered and useful in speedrunning Tears of the Kingdom within one month of release?YESṀ30