will bitcoin will hit 75k by April 2024
50
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1.1K
Apr 16
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Will Bitcoin truly reach 75 or not? Some analysts think so, but others do not. Choose your route.

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@Bayesian how would you explain your bet 2 days ago if you were reading the title literally? I guess you had in fact read the author's comment, but I agree with you other traders could have missed the clarification, hence my reminder to all below.

@deagol non-epistemic. I saw big price movement and no big change in the price of bitcoin, so thought there had to be a mistake going on, so bet against whoever moved the market

no big change in bitcoin price*

@Bayesian got it. thanks

sold Ṁ11 NO

@traders beware, the author has clarified the deadline is at market close on April 16, not the end of the month.

sold Ṁ28 NO

I am skeptical that a comment takes precedence over the title "by april 2024"

@Bayesian Don't think it'd be the first time a comment overruled a literal reading of the title. Precisely because it wasn't obvious (given the closing date), traders (including myself) asked for clarification before placing bets well before April, and the author made it clear after a few days. The price and all trading has reflected such ever since, otherwise it would have been down near 1-5% since April 1st.

@deagol alright, fair point. so the title should be changed to end with "by the end of april 16"

@deagol The market should be cancelled. "By April" cannot reasonably be interpreted to mean by some random date in April.

@deagol Traders cannot be expected to read all the comments in every market to look for comments that contradict the literal meaning of the title and description. Comments should have no bearing on the resolution. Only the title and description should matter.

@AndrewHebb i largely agree it should be cancelled tbh

@AndrewHebb if you saw this question at around 30-40% during early April, and read the title literally ("by April" = 4/1), then you'd think of betting it down, else you were assuming the deadline had not passed. In such a case, is end of April any more reasonable than beginning, or any other random date? This is why it was asked, and answered.

I got no issue if it gets cancelled (just a couple hundred mana for me) but then that makes any and all clarifications in comments worthless.

Edit: the date matches the close date right from the creation of the market, so not quite random.

not a criticism at all, id say you can ask for clarification and follow it up with "could you clarify it in the title/description as well?" or smth. i agree n/a sucks for clawing back deserved profits, hm

@AndrewHebb

comments that contradict the literal meaning of the title and description

Curiously, your own betting contradicts such literal meaning. What were you thinking? Non-epistemic like @Bayesian?

@deagol On Manifold, in my experience, by April means by the end of April. Clarifications in comments should be added to the description so that everyone can easily read them.

@AndrewHebb disagree about 'by' = 'end of'. It literally means 'before' but many use it differently, particularly non-english speakers. That confusion is legendary here, I'm sure you're aware of the infamous Google search market, and many others.

Agree about clarifications getting added to descriptions. This author seemed to have a bit of a tough time even clarifying the simple deadline, so it seemed to me almost futile to request them to update description.

i also take by april to mean the end of april, but i didn't know it "literally" means before. what makes you say that daniel?

@Bayesian when used with a time or date, it must be the last meaning here (3b):

See also number 13 here, and the first section here:

All markets using "by some year, month or date" where I've traded in, treat the beginning of the year/month/date as the deadline.

@Bayesian doing a search like "by 2024" or similar and scanning the results, I see most titles include the qualifier EOY or "end of" as part of the wording. But where there are no qualifiers, I do see several that tacitly assume the "end of" and several that assume the "beginning of" interpretations. So perhaps it's a weird coincidence that all I traded at always used the later.

@deagol Yes, I've seen disagreements over this, and since the market was still open, I assumed the end of the month was what was meant. April 16th makes no sense at all.

@AndrewHebb you're still betting as if your assumption were correct, despite knowing what the author intended. At best you might get a N/A, but this can't ever get reopened until EoM for your bets to pay off, against the author's clarified intention and all other bettors expectations. Why keep digging in?

@deagol I forgot what market this was. I need to remember this guy's name.

The description doesn't make clear if it means "before" or "during" April.

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@SyedKhaled still not clear: after April arrives, or after it's over? The close date isn't helping either.

@SyedKhaled how about you give an exact date for the deadline. April 1st or May 1st?

@deagol hi its in april 16

@SyedKhaled Why this random date?

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