SvenS's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -10.57
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when SvenS bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ510
- Will Destiny buzzcut his hair before the end of 2022 (1st of January)NOṀ100
- Will Destiny's side channel "Last Night On Destiny" have more monthly views than Vaush's main channel at the end of the December?NOṀ100
70%
80%
95%