Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
Jul 19
Tim Scott (SC Senator )
Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
Elise Stefanik (NY Congresswoman)
Vivek Ramaswamy (Entrepreneur)
Tulsi Gabbard (Former HI Congresswoman)
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (AR Governor)
Nikki Haley (Former SC Governor)
Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)
Kristi Noem (SD Governor)
Ben Carson (Former Trump HUD Secretary)
Ron DeSantis (Florida Governor)
Marsha Blackburn

Resolves to the person chosen for VICE PRESIDENT by the RNC, if listed here when chosen. If the answer is unambiguously duplicated, resolves to the version added first. Otherwise OTHER.

This is currently set to close at the expected end of the Republican National Convention in 2024. May adjust if needed.

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Trump just had a private event with all the VP contenders. The only one he mentioned as a VP possibility? Marco Rubio. "His name is coming up a lot for vice president!" https://x.com/sophiacai99/status/1787224996516913523?s=46

bought Ṁ400 Tim Scott (SC Senator ) YES

77% of senior Congressional staffers agree with the market.

Could Trump pick DeSantis?

They're both from Florida. The 12th amendment says that Florida electors could not pick both candidates if they reside in that state.

DeSantis isn't going to quit his job as governor just to run for president. He could quit and move after they win the election but before the electoral college votes.

Someone would probably sue. Then it goes to the conservative supreme court, which believe the constitution must be strictly interpreted to help Republicans, so there's no problem.

@PeterMillerc030 Bush and Cheney were both from Texas, so Cheney just applied for Wyoming residency and got around it

@SemioticRivalry But Cheney also changed his voting registration in July, 4 days before he became Bush's vice president, not after the election happened. And it sounds like he had a variety of other claims towards living in Wyoming:

Bush's residency was unquestioned, as he was Governor of Texas at the time. However, Cheney and his wife had moved to Dallas five years earlier when he assumed the role of chief executive at Halliburton. Cheney had grown up in Wyoming, had represented it in Congress and had continuously maintained a residence[34] in the state during his tenure at Halliburton. A few months before the election, he switched his voter registration and driver's license to Wyoming and put his home in Dallas up for sale. On July 21, 2000, Cheney changed his voter registration from Texas to Teton County, Wyoming.

I'd imagine DeSantis can't just move out of Florida in July and remain governor.

bought Ṁ25 Answer #83092cc73d26 YES

@PeterMillerc030 Trump could just move elsewhere, though.

@SemioticRivalry Also unclear, as Trump listed his state of residency with the FEC when he filed to run for president. That would surely be contested in court.

@SemioticRivalry Might be less of an issue than I think, here's a video explaining how it could work with Rubio:

Though that's probably easier for Rubio because he already works in DC and can change residency there, whereas DeSantis works in Florida.

I'm +$400 on Predictit if it's Rubio and -$400 if it's DeSantis. Still can't decide if I should derisk the DeSantis position.

I guess I see betting against DeSantis as safe in 2 different ways: both because of 12th amendment headaches and because Trump surrounds himself with sycophants and would be unlikely to pick a former rival.

@Joshua What am I missing 😩 ? Why is Haley trending?

bought Ṁ11 Kristi Noem (SD Gove... NO

Kristi Noem should not still be so high

@JS_81 the one saving grace I'll give her is that Trump apparently does not like dogs at all, but I do think he has the political acumen to understand that people like it when you praise a dog, so I think this might be disqualifying for him.

sold Ṁ21 Kristi Noem (SD Gove... YES

Bro you cannot shoot an 18-month-old dog in this country and win national office, I cannot believe she told this story BY CHOICE.

@TiredCliche You can probably shoot a dog and win national office, it's just the timing of this that makes it so egregious. Along with her showing no remorse.

@ShadowyZephyr You can shoot a bad dog, but you can't shoot an 18-month-old dog that you were unable to train and then, upon recollecting that story, make it clear that you shot the dog in a pit because you hated it.

opened a Ṁ700 J.D. Vance (Ohio Sen... NO at 9% order

@TiredCliche Certainly not with that attitude

@TiredCliche Coming from a man who never has been farming his entire life. Get a grip, still she is solid pick for the people.

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