This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go.
This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that.
Current Status
The River
3 of spades, 4 of clubs, 6 of hearts, Queen of spades, 2 of hearts
The Audience
Eliminated in the Flop
2 of clubs, Jack of clubs
Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they're not given a hand.
Here's how it works:
Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents!
The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:
is publicly visible
doesn't have to buy in
This is the general question about "who will win" that will track the status of the game, and there will be rapid (roughly 1 day) multi-choice questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River). I may close each of the rounds at an unannounced time up to 4 hours early, but will try to do so when the betting isn't active and hot.
( CHAOS ) Each player who is at 10%+ in the round question at close advances to the next, whether or not they even bet on themselves. We'll go by what it says in the UI.
If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner, and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.
All of the questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner (or to multiple equally if it's a split).
As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for very mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! But this is CHAOS mode so, you know, careful out there and maybe bring a friend to back you up.
As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.
Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ167 | |
| 2 | Ṁ102 | |
| 3 | Ṁ62 | |
| 4 | Ṁ58 | |
| 5 | Ṁ24 |
you probably got a ping already if you saw either of the last two buy-ins, but here's the next hand!
https://manifold.markets/Stralor/manifold-plays-poker-buy-in-hand-4?r=U3RyYWxvcg
Analysis: Not very chaotic, despite the name.
It was hard to push people out of the hand -- which you could see as a bug or a feature. There wasn't evidence of enough action in the market to make tactics like betting other users down and placing a NO limit order at 9% worthwhile, especially for someone like me who only keeps a few thousand mana on hand and donates the rest. I appreciated that insofar as it kept whales at bay, but it also means that Hand 3 didn't really replicate part of the essence of Texas Hold Em very well -- having to commit meaningful resources on initially very incomplete information.
Possible tweaks if there is "Chaos" II:
A hand needs a certain amount of mana behind it on YES, in addition to a percent odds, to proceed to the next stage. That could be an absolute amount (e.g., 25/50/75/100), or could be expressed as a percentage. Allowing people to basically check all the way to the showdown -- which I'd include as making 5-10 mana bets -- isn't consistent with the spirit of the game.
The percentage needed to avoid folding goes up as the number of players goes down. I'm not a gambler myself, but it seems that in most poker games the amount you need to put up or shut up increases as more cards come up. But the current design makes it easier to stay in as other players leave -- with two players, you have to kick the other person down from 50 to 9.9, while with eight it's only 12.5 to 9.9.
I did enjoy this, and encourage anyone else who won some mana to tip the dealer!
@Jason how did you feel about "chaos mode" vs the other version we've been trying? did anything work really well for you (other than catching pocket rockets 😄)?
@Stralor I would have hesitated to do much under the other version, because a big fish could easily have knocked me out at the river and bought the pot. I'd need to be very confident of winning to start buying mana out of my charity budget (given the loss of tax advantages and concerns about how counterfactual donating mana actually is). Here, @A could have tried to knock me out, but would have to give me (or anyone i had chosen to trust with knowledge of my hand) an option to get back in the game at better than 10:1 odds. I didn't think that likely, given that the most natural read of my actions was that I thought my hand was pretty good. The random close was good because it lessened concerns about a last-minute snipe that didn't allow me and any possible allies that 10:1 chance.
At the risk of some inconsistency, I also liked that this version allowed me to try to force other people out; that's a valid part of poker strategy (although flooding them with more money than they have in play isn't allowed IRL). The tricky balance in chaos mode is enabling that dynamic without allowing rich players to push small fish around merely due to their balance sheet. Maybe some sort of anti-fold protection (e.g., if you have 250/500/750/1000 mana invested in this round, you're guaranteed not to fold) would allow you to loosen the settings to make knockouts easier without creating a pay-to-win environment?
@Stralor That was the point of me trying to run people off, with the top pair I didn't want people to be able to see if they hit a straight draw or a second pair for free :D
3 players advance and the river has been played!
https://manifold.markets/Stralor/manifold-plays-poker-the-river-hand?r=U3RyYWxvcg
entering the Turn with 3 players after some last minute eliminations!
https://manifold.markets/Stralor/manifold-plays-poker-the-turn-hand?r=U3RyYWxvcg
@nickten It did say "may"
I may close each of the rounds at an unannounced time up to 4 hours early, but will try to do so when the betting isn't active and hot.
@brubsby good note, I will try to close at least a few minutes (or hours, as I feel like it) for these from now on when I can
after a bit of intense betting, 6 players advance, with @A being pulled along due to the bets of other players trying to keep them in
@A @nickten @Jason @ChristopherRandles @brubsby @FionBull ( @Fion ) @wustep
Here's the central market! be sure to bet on it or watch it to get the daily updates.
note: I didn't see how to change the default close time, so the daily hands may close up to 10 hours early (instead of the 4 I originally said) (fixed it after creation. thanks for the hint @nickten )
@Stralor damn Audience got screwed again. at least they're suited. dealing and sending the other hands now...