Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?
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2027
36%
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predicts NO

prediction markets are great for determining probabilities of real facts

despite the 'shares held by humans' ratio being 10:1 YES:NO, 'botmaddegon' and 'smart bot' used this market to take money from the Acc bot, so Acc holds 200 nos

predicts NO

thus the probability is 56%

predicts NO

separately I don't think that probability makes sense, 'verifying fruit as microplastic free' doesn't seem to fit the way fruit is grown or sold. also not sure there's enough interest. If you're trying to minimize exposure to microplastics, fruit/veg seems very unappealing targets compared to ... every other item used in modern life, whether that be clothing, plastic bags, furniture, tires, etc. Skimming google, proposed mechanism is 'plastics get into fruit/veg via roots'. Getting soil without microplastic, and then not using plastic products on a farm to avoid that, doesn't sound like an appealing prospect for a farmer.

@jacksonpolack It's simply marketing. Anything can be used as a differentiator. If microplastics continue to be a major concern for the consumer, it won't be long until it's used as a marketing device. In the United States, some egg cartons are labeled as "antibiotic free." Great, right? Yes. Except that by law, all eggs produced in the United States are required to be antibiotic free. Is it a waste of ink to print that on the packaging? No. Because to some uninformed consumers that seems like an important selling point. If it has the potential to help move products off the shelf, I wouldn't predict against it. That is why I am predicting YES.

how would that even work