What will be true of the 1Y return of a small cap ETF (VB) vs. an SP500 ETF (VOO) on August 1st, 2027?

Question

More than one answer can resolve yes. I may add more options later.

1Y refers to the market return between August 1st, 2026 and August 1st, 2027.

2 decimal places will be used.

Resolution will be based on googling both "VB" and "VOO", scaling the chart to "1Y", and recording the number shown before market open on August 1st, 2027. Example below.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, VB 1Y return is HIGHER than VOO return, followed by VB 1Y return is 4.00% or more LOWER than VOO return and VB 1Y return is 4.00% or more HIGHER than VOO return are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Oct 1, 2026).

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