Steven Mignoa's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Steven Mignoa bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
60%
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ20
- Will Beast Gohan and Orange Piccolo be the top 2 best units in the game on release?NOṀ10
- Will Gamma 1 and Gamma 2 be featured in Beast Gohan's and his counterpart's banner in this New Year's celebration?NOṀ10
- Will Beast Gohan and Orange Piccolo be the top 2 best units in the game on release?NOṀ5
- Will Beast Gohan and Orange Piccolo be the top 2 best units in the game on release?NOṀ5
70%
- Will Beast Gohan and Orange Piccolo be the top 2 best units in the game on release?NOṀ50
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ40
- Will Beast Gohan and Orange Piccolo be the top 2 best units in the game on release?NOṀ25
- Will Destiny reach 617k subscribers by the end of January 2023?YESṀ10
80%
90%
- Will Gamma 1 and Gamma 2 be featured in Beast Gohan's and his counterpart's banner in this New Year's celebration?NOṀ30
- Will Gamma 1 and Gamma 2 be featured in Beast Gohan's and his counterpart's banner in this New Year's celebration?NOṀ10
- Will Aba appear on one of Destiny's streams again before the end of February?YESṀ10
95%