Will it snow in New York during the winter of 2023-2024?
Mini
33
36k
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
YES

It has been more than 700 days since accumulating snow fell in several US East Coast cities. No snow has yet fallen this winter, and little usually falls during El Nino years.

This market will resolve to YES if accumulating snow is recorded in New York's Central Park before June 1, 2024. A trace of snow is not defined as accumulating, and therefore is insufficient for this market to resolve to YES. Sleet and freezing rain are also insufficient.

Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. It will resolve to N/A if data stops being reported from Central Park.

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predicted YES

RESOLUTION: As @mint linked, the NWS's X post states that there was 0.2 inches of snow at 7:00pm EST in Central Park on January 6. Therefore, the resolution is YES.

predicted YES

I can't seem to find an official report documenting whether it snowed in Central Park today. Is anyone aware of the link?

When I published this market, I thought the answer was obviously YES.

But now it has been bid down to less likely than not, which is an astonishing outcome. Perhaps global warming is accelerating out of control earlier than thought.

@SteveSokolowski If this happens (no snow) that’s pretty incredible given my (admittedly small) sample. I spent four winters in New York. All of them had ample snow.