Additional songs which EDDIE has contributed to (at least enough that they are credited for it on a major music platform like Spotify or Apple music) may be added. Do not add any remixes, unless EDDIE did not contribute to the original song, since in order to ensure an unambiguous outcome I will be treating the presense of any remixes of his works in the set as a YES for the answer corresponding to the original version. This does not apply to similar but still distinct original releases with unique names, such as the tracks “Healing” “Still Healing” “Healed” etc. even though they are variations on a theme, since they’re different enough that I’ll be able to conclusively differentiate them in order to resolve this market properly.
All answers for which the song is played by the artist EDDIE during their set at Lollapalooza 2024 will resolve YES. Any answers for the song is not played during their set will resolve NO.
To ensure clear and unambiguous answers, the minimum contiguous duration for any song being played in order for it to be considered as having been played is 90 seconds.
Additionally, the song must be played by EDDIE during EDDIE’s set. It is not sufficient for another artist to play the song during their set instead. For example, if Black Tiger Sex Machine were to play their collaboration with EDDIE “Bounce” during their set, but EDDIE did not play “Bounce” during his, the answer for Bounce would resolve as NO.
This market will itself remain open for trading for a full week after Lollapalooza (which will be happening August 1st through 4th) in order to provide people an incentive to do some of the heavy lifting for showing the correct answers during the last week. (This should also reduce the risk that I miss something & help ensure everything resolves correctly.) However, I will be disabling the creation of new answers starting August 1st in order to incentivize people to add any other songs I haven’t included yet sooner rather than later & avoid having the optimal strategy just be to add the songs directly during or immediately after the set.
For disambiguation, this market is about the electronic music artist EDDIE, originally of the record label mau5trap. Their artist profiles on music services are linked below.
Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/artist/eddie/309886716
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/artist/0LgrViZrCyMgg5MfTc33bd
Youtube Music: https://music.youtube.com/channel/UCSRH5S-5B75Jm4oSfa_JO9w
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,179 | |
| 2 | Ṁ8 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
My thesis: YES is likely overpriced for anything above ~30% based on the number of qualifying songs EDDIE has released and data from sets of comparable artists (using REZZ as proxy.)
Non-headliner sets for Lollapalooza are typically 45 - 60 minutes and this is EDDIE’s first Lollapalooza set. Conservatively though, let’s say 60 minutes.
I counted ~70 qualifying songs on EDDIE’s spotify.
REZZ plays 40 songs in her Red Rocks 2019 set, which lasts 90 minutes, an average of 2 minutes and 15 seconds (135 seconds) each. At that average duration, a 45 minute set would allow for 20 songs, or 26.67 songs for a 60 minute set.
Moreover, at her Red Rocks 2019 set, 10 of the 40 songs REZZ plays are entirely by other artists in a way which would disqualify them from this market, making the ratio for those which would qualify 3/4.
Conservatively:
60*60*(3/4)*(1/135) = 20 qualifying songs
Lower bound:
45*60*(3/4)*(1/135) = 15 qualifying songs
Presuming equal likelihoods:
Conservatively:
20/70 ~= 28.6% chance per song on average.
In reality, EDDIE may play even fewer of his own songs since he is a less well known artist than REZZ, has a more progressive and trance-like style than REZZ’s more festival-suited bass house, has not performed as many major events live and therefore may play more tracks from his peers, and is also involved in multiple record labels (mau5trap, monstercat, Hypnovizion, etc) which will likely have a similar effect.
In summary, unless you think there’s some special reason EDDIE is practically guaranteed to play a particular song, it’s answer is probably overvalued if above 30% YES.
Changed the close time to August 11th to give people an incentive to do some of the heavy lifting for showing the correct answers during the week after Lollapalooza. If anyone wants free mana they can just wait till after the set & full send on the correct answers in that window of time.
This should help make sure I don’t accidentally miss anything when resolving this question, and should also give me some time to go through it & double check. In fact, I’ve actually ask EDDIE on twitter to see if he’d be willing to confirm what he played before I resolve this, so I’ll keep everyone posted on whether he responds.
I gotta say, I highly doubt that the current odds are accurate considering the limited time sets usually last. There’s also the possibility that he includes new work or songs from other artists, which wouldn’t really count for anything here but would still further reduce the number of his own songs he would have time for.
I personally just bet for each song in isolation based on whether the song would individually fit the kind of vibe I’d expect for a set like this at Lollapalooza, however it’s unlikely that he’ll play as many of these as I bet YES for. A pretty solid strategy for anyone who wants to bet against me is therefore to generally bet NO on the majority of these to correct this, since you’d be likely to be right more than you’d be wrong. However I will not be doing so myself both because I want to incentivize more people trading this, and also because I want to test my own understanding of whether each of these songs fit for this kind of set.
Kinda cool that both EDDIE and Black Tiger Sex Machine are playing at lolla this year. I wonder whether that makes it more or less likely that EDDIE plays their collaboration “Bounce”? I’m taking what is honestly just a guess and betting YES, but it could have the opposite effect if he doesn’t want to step on their toes.
@SteveAcomb Update: okay now I’ve added like, 50 songs, so this probably isn’t true anymore. That said, it’s still not all of his work and he could also release something between now and Lollapalooza, so there’s definitely still room for additional answers. Now it’s just less likely that we get a bunch of new questionable ones with ambiguous names or something.
Some interesting things to potentially consider include:
the maximum number of songs which could be played within the duration of their set
legal ability to play songs for which EDDIE collaborated with other artists
aesthetic tradeoffs between the crowd-pleasing aspects of playing songs with lyrics that the audience may know & sing along with versus the inherent awkwardness of playing prerecorded vocals at a live performance without the singer physically present
aesthetic tradeoffs between playing songs that are more popular (but perhaps not as lively or danceable) versus playing songs that are more appropriate for a festival environment
tradeoffs between songs that are popular among the artist’s core fans versus those which may be more approachable to a general audience
the ratio between which the artist is likely to play either their most popular work or any newer releases