Trump's election interference trial won't be held on 5/17 so he can go to his son's graduation, but will he actually go?
resolved May 17

I bet he goes golfing instead. At Bedminster.

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According to the NY Post, Trump did attend Barron's graduation, so this market resolves as YES.

While it is called hush money, that's misleading because the payoff was meant to affect the election in the aftermath of the Access Hollywood tape, which is the felony Trump will be charged with.

@StephenSPower I thought he was just being charged with falsification of business records.

@Snarflak This Reuters piece is a good explainer:

The key grafs:

It is against New York state law to make a false entry in a company's records. While falsification of business records on its own is a misdemeanor, it is considered a felony punishable by up to four years in prison if it is done to conceal or further other crimes.

In this case, Bragg said those other crimes include alleged election law violations and tax law violations. Federal law in 2016 capped individual contributions to campaigns at $2,700, and New York state law makes it a misdemeanor to conspire to promote a candidacy by "unlawful means."

@StephenSPower Ah, I wasn't aware of that. Makes the case seem like less of a sure thing.

@Snarflak That was the consensus going in: this was a reach. However, that consensus seems to be shifting given the evidence and testimony. As an article in NY Mag put it today regarding Cohen providing the link between Trump and the scheme:

"...conviction is more likely than not. Cohen’s testimony is corroborated substantially enough by checks, emails, phone records, and financial records that the jury can reach a guilty verdict without taking a blind leap of faith on Cohen’s word alone."

That said, the article also points out:

"But a trial isn’t a popularity contest, or a morality play, or a who-started-it beef. If the jury concludes that they’re all a bunch of untrustworthy, opportunistic scoundrels, then — even if Trump is the worst of the worst — the legally mandated verdict is 'not guilty.'"

Election interference trial or hush money accounting trial?

FYI Trump has a dinner for donors starting at 5pm Central in Minnesota that night. I can't find the start time for the graduation.

bought Ṁ1 YES

After all the back and so that he could go he had better have a great reason he doesn't.

His ritzy private high school was founded by a Koch brother for his own kids, so I bet all the parents are awful. They'll love having him there.

All you need to know: The school started a football team in 2014 and within two years it had to vacate all its wins and championships for recruiting violations while the coach, who was paid $600K/yr, was fired for harassment.

If he does go, would be interesting to hear from some of the other parents how this affected their experience. Maybe not at all, or maybe he’s the reason they sent their child to that school, or maybe some auntie will be upset about her kid’s big moment getting upstaged…

ETA if the school wasn’t already planning on him coming this may not go over big with everyone.

Good question. The criteria is a clearly non-photoshopped or non-AI-generated picture of Trump at the graduation or elsewhere or, in a pinch, a reputable source directly reporting his whereabouts (not simply taking Trump's word for it).

bought Ṁ10 YES

What's the resolution criteria? N/A unless pictures of him at the graduation or elsewhere?

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