Will my weekly calorie average be at or below my goal for the next four weeks?
4
5
resolved Mar 30
Resolved
NO
I've currently plateaued in weight loss at ~170 lbs. (5'9" height) and been stuck here for about 5-6 months. I currently use MacroFactor (https://www.strongerbyscience.com/macrofactor/) to track calories most days. However, my compliance with my target has been quite bad over the past two months. Inspired by the questions regarding whether paying people to lose weight will work better than prescribing a specific program, I want to see how having people predict on my compliance at a calorie target with me on the "yes" side affects my compliance. The resolution criteria for "yes" will be twofold: 1. I do my best to track calories every day where this means tracking fairly carefully when I cook and ball-parking with a slight bias towards overestimating when I eat out. 2. I track calories >=25 days in the next four weeks (so can only miss three days). As proof for this, if I resolve the Q "yes", I'll try to add a comment proving these things. I've intentionally initialized the market at a high price to incentivize people to bet against me. Go wild! Mar 10, 10:22am: I realized I didn't record my current calorie target in the original description... It's 1573 calories. I use the "Dynamic" mode on MacroFactor though, so if it updates it upwards or downwards, "yes" resolution will be based on hitting whatever the new goal is for that week not the current one. Close date updated to 2022-04-07 11:59 pm
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bought Ṁ1 of NO
Had a rough day, yesterday 3500+ calories. Now might be a good time to get in on "No" although I'm gonna see if I can bring the average down by Thursday to salvage this.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
This week was 1560! Still on track!
bought Ṁ1 of YES
For the record, just made it this first week. Averaged 1577 calories, and my end of week calorie target is at 1585 calories.
sold Ṁ1 of YES
It was less about your information than me betting NO to inceltivize you then someone else bets YES to take away your incentive.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Martin if it's about me switching to buying NO later due to insider information, I now see why you'd be concerned about that. I will pre-commit to not buying NO even if I know I'm failing, although I can see how you have no reason to trust me... Perhaps the fact that it will impact my reputation for future markets I'd create is enough? I wonder if there's another way for me to prevent myself from participating at all.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Martin thanks! I appreciate the thought but don't want to close because I want to be able to give updates on how it's going and let people update their purchases based on that. Is there some reason why you'd prefer I close it prematurely?
bought Ṁ1 of YES
As someone of the same height i totally understand, the 77kg zone seems to resist and i normally bounce, last time to 92kg because of fatigue issues meaning i got in a sugar craving cycle. i am back down to 81 now but fearing that plateau although my attitude now is more about healthy eating and if I can live off 1500 cal a day and not lose weight well hell thats gonna save me money and be good for the environment! If you want I am happy to stick 100 on NO if you promise to close the market straight after then you will be in a situation where you are rewarded for success.

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