How many daily active users will Manifold average during the week prior to January 1st, 2023?

As a follow-up to this market, I'm interested in projecting out prediction market usage in the short to medium term. Since Manifold helpfully exposes its analytics (https://manifold.markets/analytics#), I thought we could start by projecting Manifold usage out to the end of the year. In the past week, Manifold roughly averaged 70 daily active users (DAUs). This market will resolve in favor of the numerical answer closest to the average number of DAUs during the aforementioned week on January 2nd, 2023. If for some reason, Manifold no longer exposes its DAUs as of 01/01/2023, I'll do my best to get them some other way but resolve the market N/A if I'm unable. Apr 24, 9:44am: On reflection, the resolution strategy I described may be a little too winner-take-all to provide good incentives. I'd be open to a strategy that involves choosing multiple, weighted by their distance from the true value if a principled one existed. If I had asked for means and standard deviations, I can imagine giving weight proportional to the density each answer assigned to the true value but with only point estimates, I'm not sure how to do something sensible. If anyone has good ideas, please reply in the comments! I'll informally declare the first week of the market a commenting period during which I reserve the right to update the resolution strategy. After that, starting on May 1st, the resolution criteria will be locked in.

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