Stephen Buggy's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.66
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Stephen Buggy bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will New Zealand residential property prices fall more, or rise less, than the UK, USA, Germany, Austria, Australia, and Canada in the data released in 2023?NOṀ95
- Will the room-temperature superconductor market pass 60% again?YESṀ55
- Will Manifold Markets take steps to combat bounty-based Ponzi schemes within a month?NOṀ20
70%
80%
90%