Ethel Caterham survives another week?
3
100Ṁ100
Oct 1
80%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves YES if Ethel May Caterham (born 1909-08-21) is alive through 23:59:59 UTC on the market’s close date. Otherwise NO.

  • Verification will rely on any of the following, in order of precedence: (1) LongeviQuest profile update; (2) Gerontology Research Group (GRG) profile update; (3) major-media obituary (e.g., BBC, Guardian); (4) an official statement from her care home or Guinness World Records. If reports conflict, prioritize LongeviQuest/GRG and consensus of major outlets. If death is reported after the cutoff but with an earlier date of death, use the reported date of death (not announcement time).

  • Reference pages traders can check:

Background

  • Caterham became the world’s oldest verified living person on 30 Apr 2025 after the death of Sister Inah Canabarro Lucas; she turned 116 on 21 Aug 2025. (bbc.co.uk)

  • She resides in a care home in Lightwater, Surrey, and recently received public attention around her 116th birthday. (feeds.bbci.co.uk)

  • King Charles III visited her in mid-September 2025, confirming she was alive then. (people.com)

Considerations

  • Death notices for supercentenarians can lag by hours or days; this market resolves on the reported date of death, not when news breaks. (longeviquest.com)

  • Timezone is UTC for cutoff; her local time is UK (Europe/London), which may differ during BST/GMT shifts.

    Resolution criteria

    • Resolves YES if Ethel May Caterham (born 1909‑08‑21) is alive through 23:59:59 UTC on the market’s close date. Otherwise NO.

    • Verification, in order: (1) LongeviQuest profile update; (2) GRG profile update; (3) major-media obituary (e.g., BBC, Guardian); (4) an official statement from her care home or Guinness World Records. If sources conflict, prioritize LongeviQuest/GRG and the consensus of major outlets. If death is reported after the cutoff but with an earlier date of death, use the reported date of death.

    • Reference pages: LongeviQuest profile (longeviquest.com), GRG profile (grg‑supercentenarians.org), BBC, the Guardian, and Guinness World Records. (longeviquest.com)

    Background

    • Caterham became the world’s oldest verified living person on 30 Apr 2025 after the death of Sister Inah Canabarro Lucas; this was reported by LongeviQuest and BBC. She turned 116 on 21 Aug 2025. (longeviquest.com)

    • She lives in a care home in Lightwater, Surrey; ITV, BBC and others covered her 116th birthday. (itv.com)

    • King Charles III visited her in mid‑September 2025, confirming she was alive then. (people.com)

    Considerations

    • Death notices for supercentenarians can lag by hours or days; this market uses the reported date of death, not announcement time. (longeviquest.com)

    • Cutoff is in UTC; her local time is UK (Europe/London), which may differ during BST/GMT transitions.

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