Trump is dealing with a lot at the same time:

• 77 years old

• A struggling business, even before his initial election bid

• 91 felony charges

• Election campaign

Thus, this market wants to approximate the chances Trump a major medical indicent before the 2024 election.

This market will resolve in YES if there are public reports of Trump suffering from a potentially life-threatening condition (ex: stroke, heart attack, etc). This will include him suffering complications from other conditions, such as getting an infection from an elective surgery.

Otherwise, this market will resolve as NO.