How many Mexican states will have a worse travel advisory status before April?
2
Ṁ150Ṁ238Mar 31
8.5 states
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
76%
Above 0
76%
Above 2
60%
Above 5
34%
Above 10
24%
Above 15
9%
Above 20
According to the U.S. Department of State travel advisory map. Currently there are 6 states at level 4 which cannot increase, 7 states at level 3 (orange), 17 states at level 2 (yellow), and 2 states at level 1 (blue). This market will resolve based on differentials to these numbers at the end of the month, so decreases will count against the total increase (minimum is still 0).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The title's a bit hard to parse, I wonder if this would be better: Number of mexican states whose travel advisory warning gets worse from feb 23 to end of march?
@ian fair point, since it's set up early "in March" isn't accurate and worse is probably a better descriptor than increase