Context: Service began in May 2024 and has smashed ridership projections, nearly doubling the projected number over the first year. Due to equipment safety issues requiring the replacement of Horizon cars with Superliners, the capacity of the train has also decreased slightly since introduction, resulting in most runs being 90% full or more. Amtrak commentators have viewed this route as one of the biggest successes of the last few years.

This route currently has one other daily train serving it, the long-distance Empire Builder between Seattle/Portland and Chicago. However, between St. Paul and Chicago, this train runs at inconvenient times for many travelers and is semi-frequently multiple hours late in the eastbound direction, so many people avoid taking it.

Reading:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borealis_(train)

• https://www.reddit.com/r/transit/comments/1mqk0re/amtrak_borealis_has_been_insanely_successful/

I may bet in this market but have no inside information aside from living in Minneapolis and frequently using these trains.

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve YES if, at any point before the end of 2030, there are at least three distinct trains with distinct departure/arrival times serving both Chicago Union Station and St. Paul Union Depot, scheduled at least five days per week. (N.B.: There are already three train numbers, but two of them belong to the Empire Builder, which splits into two trains in Spokane; these two numbers represent only one physical train with one departure/arrival time between Chicago and St. Paul.) The market resolves YES when a third train begins running revenue service; if a third train begins service and then is canceled, that is still YES.

Clarifications:

• The new train does not have to be called “Borealis”.

• The route between Chicago and St. Paul or the set of intermediate stops does not have to be the same as the current Borealis or Empire Builder service. (There has been some discussion of routing one through Madison instead of northwest through Wisconsin Dells, though this would require track upgrades, so seems less likely to happen in the next five years.)

• The train does not need to terminate at Union Station or Union Depot so long as it serves those stations. (There has been some discussion of extending the train west from Union Depot to serve the former route of the defunct Northstar commuter line in the Twin Cities.)

The market will resolve NO if there are fewer than three distinct trains scheduled on at least five days a week until the end of 2031, or if a third train has existed but has always run fewer than five days a week.