Sophia Laird's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.01
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Sophia Laird bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
- Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott AlexanderNOṀ10
- This market resolves YES with 1% probability.NOṀ10
- If you see this market in an ad, please bet YES. If you see it elsewhere, please bet NO.NOṀ10
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will I have more than 50 followers when this market closes January 20thYESṀ30
- Will I still speed at the end of 2023?YESṀ10
- At the end of 2023, will I believe that a rapid intelligence explosion is a plausible result of AI capabilities research, and the possibility is worth spending some non-negligible amount of effort investigating?YESṀ10
95%
97%
- Will there be >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?YESṀ50
- The alignment techniques available in 2023 will be insufficiently 'sticky' to prevent a maleficent human actor with their own copy of the model (code and weights) from easily turning the model to whatever ends they choose.YESṀ10
- Will the sun rise each day for the next 30 days?YESṀ10