Sophia's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.23
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Sophia bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
60%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will @NikitaSkovoroda one-box in this Newcomb's Problem? [Transparent, 1000x]YESṀ35
- This market resolves YES if there are 100+ unique traders by time of closing March 1st.YESṀ30
- Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 6 human users submit a trade?YESṀ10