Will Amazon layoff more than 1000+ employees before February 2024?
Jan 31

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hey @Soli - any news on this one?

@shankypanky I did not see any new information on this so I am honestly not sure what to do at this point other than wait

@Soli looks like their fiscal year is synced with the calendar year so I did a search for Q1 2024 reports (which is the best you'll get at this point imo) and articles like this one say "hundreds" which I know is not specific but seems to match all of the layoff news of <1000+

admittedly I didn't do a deep dive (this is the approach I would take if I did, though, so that's my recommendation?)


here's the Q1 2024 report from Amazon


(I'm not at my computer and it's not comfortable to search from the phone but maybe there's something here?)

@shankypanky thank you for sharing - i went very fast over the document and did not find any hints that would help us resolve this market. I will try to dedicate some time over the weekend to resolve.

@Soli I don't have a stake in this market anymore, but I've become aware of WARN notices posted, so it looks like you might have your answer: https://esd.wa.gov/about-employees/WARN

Received date on 1/18 means the employees were notified on that date they were laid off, but Amazon (and many other companies) still pay them for 60 days and allow them to find roles internally, which is why the layoff start date is 2 months later.

@traders i think this suffices to resolve the market as hes, any disagreements?

Edit: false alarm haha wrong date

@mint thank you for sharing!!!! super super helpful

@Soli hes papi

@mint Why is the year in the date 2023?

@Fedor goood catch hahah

@Soli yah wrong date, back to waiting!

@Soli lmao sorry for the false alarm, someone posted this in a discord I'm in and didn't look closely enough

@traders Would anyone mind resolving this as N/A so that everyone gets their Mana back? I tried getting input from mods on how I can best resolve this question but they did not really help. I feel uncomfortable leaving everyone waiting when I am not sure how exactly we will get more information on the number of layoffs. It is clear that the number is somewhere between 500-1500 but I have no idea what the exact number is.

@Soli I'm okay with waiting for a while longer

I think a resolution is better than N/A because, like, by this method of resolving this market amazon's much more likely to announce a number if they have a large layoff, and they're always laying off some people so there'll never be zero, so it'd almost always either YES or N/A which is unfortunate

With the intrest free loans you dont have to be overly concerned about taking your time to get the right resolution tying up mana.

@Soli If you feel it's likey the number is out there somewhere or it will be eventually, I don't think anyone minds waiting a while.

@Soli Twitch is owned by Amazon and had 500 layoffs, does that help contribute to resolve yes, or does it have to be parent?

@Soli I'm not sure why people were so worried about long wait times for resolution with 0% loans, but if you absolutely want to resolve early, I think N/A is a very bad option. I think @Gideon37's suggestion of counting only the confirmed layoffs as a lower bound and resolving to a percent would be a better (maybe best) alternative. You could ask traders if they were okay with this.

But again, waiting doesn't really tie up any mana. By now most everyone should've gotten nearly all their mana back in loans.

Not a big fan of percent resolution here - People expect markets to resolve YES or NO unless you specify otherwise

ok cool i think these are very good arguments to wait so let’s wait and see if any new information comes to light

@Soli Resolving N/A sounds reasonable if there’s no way to verify true numbers.

predicts NO

You could wait to resolve to see if actual concrete figures come to light. But if there are no clear numbers, you should resolve N/A.

predicts NO

I'm not sure. Concrete figures are more likely in situations where something like the event described happens, right? Whereas if there are a bunch of diffuse layoffs there might not be an official statement about it. I think there should be a strong presumption against N/A, and if the question was constructed poorly then it should N/A now and not wait.

@jacksonpolack do you think the question was constructed poorly?