Hi habibi, fellow masri here

I suspect a lot of people here don't understand the purpose of a ceasefire. This is evident in remarks like: a ceasefire just gives Hamas time to rearm and do it again, and there already was a ceasefire and they broke it .

A ceasefire is merely a step, it's an off-ramp into actually addressing the problem. At least, that's what it should be. It seems the status quo for the past decade in Israel was that Hamas and Gaza was just some nuisance to be perpetually managed. Oct 7 was partially the result of mistaking a ceasefire for a peace deal. This isn't a justification, it's an mechanistic explanation. A ceasefire is an agreement to end immediate hostilities, and the agreement is reached only with the aim that the parties involved would try to work out the root cause for those hostilities. Given that we're 12,000 dead Palestinians in, any "eye-for-eye" bullshit is now irrelevant and it is perfectly reasonable and in fact morally obligatory to call for a ceasefire, followed by an actual genuine attempt at resolving this.

Here's the thing: the two-state solution is dead, has long been dead, and anyone who still advocates for it is unserious or uninformed. There's been too much settlement, and trying to 'reverse' it means evicting countless people who genuinely feel it to be their home - more injustice. It was already dicey given that the proposed Palestinian state would comprise two non-contiguous land masses. In addition to bifurcating Palestinians across Gaza/West Bank, it also bifurcates Palestinians who live in the occupied territories/Israel proper. Furthermore, it doesn't solve the security risk posed to Israel by actors from within Palestine, nor the security risk for Palestine posed by actors from within Israel. This includes direct state violence and indirect state-sanctioned violence.

In 2023, the only remaining viable possibilities are variations of a single-state. That state could be anything ranging from a full and complete cleansing/genocide of Palestinians, or a democratic secular society where all are equal. Anything else, including the currently extant apartheid state§, or including a farcical 'two-state solution' (apartheid with lipstick), is just a holding pattern until a single-state is reached.

I don't think you should change your view, instead I think you should append to it that apartheid needs to be dismantled and Israel/Palestine should be formalized as a singular, secular, democratic state and the world should hold all parties involved responsible for figuring out how to achieve that. To advocate otherwise is to fecklessly stall until ethnic cleansing or genocide (with more Oct 7's along the way).

This isn't only about Palestinians and Israelis. This issue is a deeply wedged lynchpin withholding democracy in the entire Middle East. Consider this data from 2022:

With the current state of popular Arab opinion, democracy in the Middle East would be a disaster for both Israel and the US (who have good relations with the vicious autocrats currently ruling those countries, and actively help them maintain their grip on power). And if anyone's about to insinuate this is because Arabs are fanatical antisemites driven by a theological hatred for Jews, look at Figure 28 first, then look in the mirror, then ask yourself whether you'd say the same about Poles being anti-Russian in response to the invasion of Ukraine, or whether you're just racist lol

In conclusion, not only should Israel and Hamas call a ceasefire and illegal settlements be stopped, but the status quo needs to be abandoned and the world needs to commit to dismantling apartheid in Israel the same way it did in South Africa (i.e. sanctions and diplomatic pressure).

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§: Make no mistake, the situation is already approaching a single state, and when you accept that, it's obvious that this is apartheid. Gaza and the West Bank are not states. They don't have any sort of sovereignty or self-determination. Define what a 'state' is, then realize that Palestinians need the Israeli govt's permission to travel, import/export, build a house, or plant a tree. There already is a single state, and different people live by different rules based on ethnic distinctions: apartheid.

1)

Irredentism or revanchism involves claiming land based on historical or ethnic connections. Irredentist claims are unethical because they fail to consider the rights and well-being of those currently living on the land. Forceful application of irredentism can escalate into 'various forms of mass violence, including ethnic cleansing and genocide': https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irredentism

Supporters of Palestine argue that the Zionist establishment of Israel was unethical due to its reliance on irredentist claims, prioritizing historical and ethnic ties over the rights of existing inhabitants.

If Palestinians use similar irredentist logic to reclaim land from Israelis, they too engage in the same unethical conduct. In such scenarios, Israel has a right to defend itself against irredentist aggression.

Thus, the most ethical solution is to accept the status quo and work towards peaceful coexistence through negotiation.

2)

Jared Kushner's Abraham accords are the only obvious way forward for peaceful coexistence in the middle east.

The Abraham accords can only succeed if Israel has secure borders.

Hamas's attack on Israel on 7th October, and its vow to repeat such actions, indicates that Israel's borders are under threat.

Israel can only secure its borders if it destroys Hamas.

Therefore, peace in the middle east can only happen if Israel destroys Hamas.

I recommend you watch Jared Kushner's recent interview with Lex Friedman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co_MeKSnyAo

One final comment. I am in Egypt right now visiting family and I am actively discussing this with people from all backgrounds and social classes. The frustration and anger towards Israel towards right now is insane. People are constantly bombarded by the ugliest pictures of death and suffering. Almost everyone knows a Palestinian living in Egypt with family still in Gaza.

I really think that Israel’s strategy should change for peace to be a real possibility. Destruction might offer a momentary sense of security, but true, enduring safety comes from peace. The obliteration of Hamas won’t erase the memories and sentiments of Palestinians and Arabs elsewhere.

I urge those not already advocating for a ceasefire to reconsider. Most of us on Manifold share a common goal: to alleviate human suffering. Unfortunately, the current trajectory threatens to increase anguish, both now and in the future

I am ending this question right now. I did not change my opinion but I will be rewarding individuals who participated with the bounty. Feel free to continue but I need some time to read, understand and reflect on everything thay was said.

I rewarded more bounties than I initially planned to because I was not expecting so much engagement. If anyone thinks they deserve more Mana, let me know and I will just send it 😉

The nakba occurred during a war started by Arabs and after decades of attacks by Arabs. It was a response to Arab violence, not the Holocaust.

I agree that the settlements are harmful in many ways and I’d love to see them evacuated. I disagree about the night raids - they’re necessary to repress terror groups in the West Bank. It’s false that Hamas isn’t present in the West Bank. Hamas, PIJ and other terror groups openly operate there. Eg https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/10/funerals-for-west-bank-dead-jenin-israel-hamas-war.