In a recent Dwarkesh podcast interview with the head of Anthropic, Dario Amodei makes the claim that an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" could be as soon as 2-3 years away.
Relevant video: https://youtu.be/Nlkk3glap_U?si=2JyHLqMSxIxdakR6
At the end of 2025 (roughly 2.5 years), how well will this claim hold up?
I will make a poll at market close and ask the following:
"Does AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" currently exist?"
The poll will stay up for 1 week.
This market resolves YES if the poll resolves "YES".
Otherwise this market will resolve NO.
@ProjectVictory yeah, I ask o1 some things and the answers are so far beyond the average human "smartness"
@stardust Apparently @SteveSokolowski already uses o1 as a lawyer and a doctor -- if that's not impressive I don't know what is.
Will it be contextualized by Dario's specific claim? Or just the question "Does AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" currently exist?" by itself?
Dario said: "In terms of someone looks at the model and even if you talk to it for an hour or so, it's basically like a generally well educated human, that could be not very far away at all. I think that could happen in two or three years."
@firstuserhere Median US citizen IMO, but because this resolves to a poll that will be up to interpretation.
Currently there are many simple text-based tasks that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't.
For as long as that's true, I believe the result should be NO.
These two markets are about that, and the current probability (24%) seems to somewhat align with these markets: 4% by the end of 2025, 33% by the end of 2026.
@Joshua I suspect the poll will model reality, but could always have a related market about that fact!