This market will have traded >M$99,999 in volume before the end of the month.
33
20
Ṁ100KṀ1.1K
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph.
My last market was a huge success so we are ramping up the difficulty. If we reach the end of the month and have not gotten there resolves NO. Otherwise immediately resolves YES when I see that we have met the threshold.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ615 | |
| 2 | Ṁ143 | |
| 3 | Ṁ93 | |
| 4 | Ṁ93 | |
| 5 | Ṁ93 |
Sort by:
@jfjurchen only M$1081 can come out of the market, net. Because Joel's injected a ton of cash into the market buying YES though, you can buy more than the liquidity pool's worth as long as you're betting against him by buying NO. The automated market maker rebalances the pool as the probability changes.
@TedSuzman one of these days an untrustworthy market resolver is gonna disappoint that fellow quite a lot.
@jfjurchen I'm committed to being 100% honest as a market creator so it won't be me... but ultimately that may end up being someone's solution for market manipulation by whales.
@GeorgeVii AFAIK the idea that the Manifold team wouldn't step in is considered by them to be more of a feature than a bug - decentralized reputation-based market resolution and all that. I could be wrong, though.
@GeorgeVii nah not technically manipulation in any dishonest sense. More just that markets like this are designed such that the power is entirely in the hands of the people who have the ability to singlehandedly manipulate the answer via massive injections of mana. There's no real forecasting of value happening, just guessing about the decisions of a few individual people about whether or not they want to dump money in to extract a small amount out. I find it somewhat tiresome.
@GeorgeVii he was buying towards certainty, so fees go to 0. You only pay large fees when you're buying away from certainty. LPs don't make any money in current scheme, not really.
@MattP
> nah not technically manipulation in any dishonest sense. More just that markets like this are designed such that the power is entirely in the hands of the people who have the ability to singlehandedly manipulate the answer via massive injections of mana.
Not really. Anyone can wash trade if it's worth their while.
@EliGaultney Check out the previous markets. I lost $M 600 applying that logic to the first such market. (at 25% the volume goal, mind you)