SlapsMcgee's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.82
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when SlapsMcgee bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Destiny just said on stream that he thinks around 300 people are coming for the Georgia canvassing event. Will at least 300 people be there?YESṀ100
- Will u/lexfridman make another post OR comment in the r/Destiny subreddit in 2022?YESṀ85
- Destiny just said on stream that he thinks around 300 people are coming for the Georgia canvassing event. Will at least 300 people be there?YESṀ65