Will Trump deny FEMA Disaster Requests from Democratic states at more than twice the rate of Republican states?

Question

I have gotten into an argument on Twitter/Substack. You can see the context here:

https://idlerambling.substack.com/p/yes-trump-is-playing-politics-with

I will use this github repo to resolve this market, specifically the command:

python3 replicate_fema_analysis.py

This market resolves YES if the Democratic state acceptance rate is half that of the Republican state acceptance rate at the end of Trump's term. Currently the Republican acceptance rate is 84.4%, and the Democratic accpetance rate is 30.8%, so this market would resolve YES. Otherwise (including ties), it resolves NO.

This is the time series chart it currently generates:

[image]

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 86% chance (2 traders, as of Apr 1, 2026).

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