I'm hoping this subsidy will attract people to make a case with some rigor behind it.

This market will resolve to PROB based on my personal belief on how likely it is that more people cast a vote in a national election in 2024 than any previous year in human history. Specifically, will the number of unique people who will vote in national elections (so not just the total number of votes cast) be higher in 2024 than ever before?

An election counts if it is anything national scope or larger - so parliamentary/presidential/congressional, as well as the EU parliament elections and similar.

I will not bet in this market, and I'll engage with comments and give my thoughts. I may extend the closing date if I feel discussion hasn't settled. I am hoping (and expect) the PROB resolution to be close to 0 or 100, and will resolve to NO/YES if I feel my personal PROB rounds to either value.

COMMENT BOUNTY

I'll also give a bounty of 10-500 mana to anyone who makes a reasonably constructive case in either direction, where Ṁ10 is roughly "added something vaguely interesting" and Ṁ500 is "made a decisively convincing case for either direction, might as well close the market now".