I'm hoping this subsidy will attract people to make a case with some rigor behind it.
This market will resolve to PROB based on my personal belief on how likely it is that more people cast a vote in a national election in 2024 than any previous year in human history. Specifically, will the number of unique people who will vote in national elections (so not just the total number of votes cast) be higher in 2024 than ever before?
An election counts if it is anything national scope or larger - so parliamentary/presidential/congressional, as well as the EU parliament elections and similar.
I will not bet in this market, and I'll engage with comments and give my thoughts. I may extend the closing date if I feel discussion hasn't settled. I am hoping (and expect) the PROB resolution to be close to 0 or 100, and will resolve to NO/YES if I feel my personal PROB rounds to either value.
COMMENT BOUNTY
I'll also give a bounty of 10-500 mana to anyone who makes a reasonably constructive case in either direction, where Ṁ10 is roughly "added something vaguely interesting" and Ṁ500 is "made a decisively convincing case for either direction, might as well close the market now".
1,000
3.00I would say I’m at about 95% right now, partially because of the arguments for and partially because of the total lack of a constructive case against so far.
Since the year hasn’t happened yet I suppose I have to reserve a few tenths of a percentage point for crazy outcomes like “another global pandemic and a lot of elections are delayed”, but if the year goes roughly to plan seems like it won’t be particularly close.
Mana on the line for anyone who drags it down a little bit too, even if I’m not totally convinced!
Anyone willing to further quantify the gap? Is it 150% more people than before? Higher?
On the "Yes" argument, running down the list of 10 most populous countries, we have seven of them with scheduled general, national legislative, or national presidential elections:
#1 India
#4 Indonesia
#5 Pakistan
#8 Bangladesh
#9 Russia
#10 Mexico
And then there's the EU Parliamentary Election.
@SEE Tipped Ṁ30! Yea, I think the number of populous countries makes an intuitive case.
I would be interested in seeing what the hypothetical “second best” year is and how close it comes.
So, the ten most-populous entities having a qualified election next year are:
#1 India
#- European Union (if it were a single country, #3 with 448 million)
#3 United States
#4 Indonesia
#5 Pakistan
#8 Bangladesh
#9 Russia
#10 Mexico
#17 Iran
#24 South Africa
Those ten combined have a population of 3.32 billion. That's more than half of the national-election-having world (take the world population, subtract just China, and . . .)
While (assuming I'm not making an error) the ten most populous countries that have had national-level elections in the last ten years that are not having one next year are:
#6 Nigeria
#7 Brazil
#11 Ethiopia
#12 Japan
#13 Philippines
#14 Egypt
#18 Turkey
#20 Thailand
#21 United Kingdom
#22 Tanzania
Those ten combined having a population of 1.21 billion, or not equal to India on its own. Any year without India seems unlikely to have a real chance at the top spot.
The last Indian general election was in 2019. While that was synched with the EU parliament and Indonesia, it was not synched with the US, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, or Mexico, so even discounting population growth it seems unlikely 2019 would approach the likely results of 2024.
@Tomoffer unless the Tories decide not to call one until 2025 (they've changed the law to allow that).
@Eliza Worldwide yes, and you’re right I should be more specific on what elections count. Loosely for now let’s say anything national scope or larger - so parliamentary/presidential/congressional, as well as the EU parliament elections counting.