Will Jimmy Carter be alive on January 1st, 2024
resolved Jan 1

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted YES

Jimmy Carter markets are to manifold what US govt bonds are to the world economy.

2 traders bought Ṁ20 YES
bought Ṁ10 NO at 78%
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@LeonardoKr "why do you know so much about Jimmy carter all of a sudden?"

"er... No reason"

bought Ṁ10 YES at 88%
bought Ṁ25 of YES

@LeonardoKr you know I don't think this is what I would call the risk free asset of the global economy.

predicted YES

"just let me build one more house before I go"

the house:

predicted YES

@Dave_9000ish then there is new year's eve, then there's a birthday coming up, then there's hopeful springtime and so on. He made it so far, why would he give up now?

bought Ṁ25 NO at 73%
predicted NO

@LeonardoKr by induction he'll live forever no doubt

bought Ṁ40 YES at 97%

@Dave_9000ish you are certainly free to speculate. But I wouldn't mind an immortal Jimmy Carter building houses no one needs across America while everyone's consciousness is uploaded to the great AI

predicted NO

@LeonardoKr The widowhood effect is very real. Mortality rates are much higher in the first month after bereavement. Aside from the holidays, it’s hard to say how Jimmy feels about hanging around for several more months.

predicted NO
predicted YES

@thepurplebull I would be really interested in the baserates. As a yes voter I would love disconfirming evidence.

I am saying yes because of actuarial tables. With a mental acknowledgement the man is in hospice.

predicted YES

Go Jimmy, go! I'll be betting my November returns in December. Promise made, promise kept

bought Ṁ75 YES
bought Ṁ250 of NO

Charlie Munger yesterday, Henry Kissinger today… Jimmy Carter tomorrow

bought Ṁ10 YES at 64%
predicted NO

predicted NO

@SirCryptomind yeah that’s not a man who’s gonna live for another 33 days imo

predicted NO

@wutangfran If that is their select group for his wife, it seems that when he does pass that there will be more people at Jimmys Services than what was at Trumps Inauguration.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@SirCryptomind @wutangfran what was your prior regarding an old man that usually lives in a place designed for people in his condition, attending a funeral far away from his place, with long distances, lots of people and noise...

And by the way, he made 6% of these 33 days already that you mention

bought Ṁ15 of NO

bro’s on 1 hp

bought Ṁ200 NO
predicted NO

@MagnusGarrett and tanking still...

bought Ṁ100 YES from 72% to 73%
predicted NO

This man just stole his wife’s life force to live on.

bought Ṁ384 of YES

@NGK I’m a jimmy carter truther

bought Ṁ10 of NO

"They were, I think, a flawless example of what Bokonon calls a duprass, which is a karass composed of only two persons.

“A true duprass,” Bokonon tells us, “can’t be invaded, not even by children born of such a union."


Bokonon tells us, incidentally, that members of a duprass always die within a week of each other. "

predicted YES

it's been a week he's still alive

predicted NO

@potatopenguin well, nevertheless. we must allow reality some flexibility when being compared to fiction