Sinclair Chen's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Sinclair Chen bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- IF Ukraine gains control of Kherson before the end of 2022, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?NOṀ50
- 8. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022?NOṀ20
- Will I win this gravity chess gameYESṀ15
- Will by the end of 2022 the official consensus be that the COVID 19 pandemic was most likely result of a lab leak.NOṀ10
- Will this research paper on lipid accumulation in mice be retracted?NOṀ10
- IF Ukraine gains control of Kherson before the end of 2022, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?NOṀ10
- Will supplementing potassium (gluconate, pills) cause any distinct-from-noise weight loss over 4 weeks?NOṀ10
- Will Manifold Markets require Proof of Humanity by the end of 2022?NOṀ1
30%
- Is Porch's state in launch configuration?NOṀ102
- Will the Manifold website be fast by the end of 2023?YESṀ50
- Will Ukraine regain control of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ46
- Will a way to extract money from unresolved closed markets materialize by mid-June?NOṀ20
- Will the new non-constructed proof of the 4-color theorem prove essentially correct?NOṀ15
- Will Manifold natively support "committing to actions" within 6 months?NOṀ10
- Will I learn of any sexual assaults in Neogenesis House this yearNOṀ10
- Will I learn of any sexual assaults in Neogenesis House this yearNOṀ10
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ10
- Will I be able to take Paxlovid in 2022?YESṀ10
40%
- Will the Manifold website be fast by the end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2022?NOṀ50
- Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by mid-October?NOṀ30
- Will White win in @AlexLiesman's "Manifold Plays Chess" game?NOṀ30
- Will I, overall, think that my first Christmas out to my family goes well?YESṀ10
- Did I get a stomachache after an "energy damage" circle?NOṀ10
- Will ctat get an offer from AnthropicNOṀ10
- Will Manifold switch to optimistic UI updates?NOṀ10
- Will Zvi end up writing 3 or more posts whose titles include the word Monkeypox in 2022?NOṀ10
- Will Twitter fire >=50% of employees before April 2023?YESṀ10
50%
- Spindle impersonation contest [M$1000 liquidity subsidy]NOṀ150
- Will this market resolve as YES?YESṀ25
- [AI Box] Can Manifold convince me to let it escape the box?NOṀ20
- [Feature Suggestion] Will Manifold add the ability to tip markets?NOṀ20
- Will I compose a choral arrangement of the Jaws theme song “good enough” that my school choir learns and sings it?YESṀ10
- Will Lightcone purchase the Rose Garden Inn?YESṀ10
- Will Twitter fire >=50% of employees before April 2023?YESṀ10
- Will the Reproductive Freedom for All Act pass into law before the midterms?NOṀ10
- Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022YESṀ10
- Will I be able to make bets without using the keyboard on Manifold?YESṀ1
60%
- [Feature Suggestion] Will Manifold add the ability to tip markets?NOṀ70
- Will there be notable riots because of the release of the video of the police brutality leading to the death of Tyre Nichols?NOṀ50
- Will there be notable riots because of the release of the video of the police brutality leading to the death of Tyre Nichols?NOṀ50
- Will Ravel Kopelman’s question about whether Dr P’s question will resolve correctly resolve in the same way as Dr P’s question?NOṀ50
- Will 'Top Gun: Maverick' win any Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ50
- Will I publish a dating doc within a month?NOṀ50
- Will I host a social event with at least 7 attendees before Feb 28, 2022?NOṀ40
- Will the @acc account be open-sourced?NOṀ30
- Will FTX US halt withdrawals for >=7days before the end of 2022?YESṀ30
- Will there be notable riots because of the release of the video of the police brutality leading to the death of Tyre Nichols?NOṀ20
70%
- Is Kitchen's state in launch configurationYESṀ101
- Will two people who never kissed before kiss at the manifold party?YESṀ100
- Will a way to extract money from unresolved closed markets materialize by mid-June?NOṀ100
- Will the responder one-box in this Transparent Newcomb's Paradox?YESṀ70
- Will Manifold show a tag next to the name/username of Manifold employees by end of October?NOṀ50
- .YESṀ50
- Will Manifolders win this game of Hangman? [1]YESṀ50
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023?YESṀ35
- will 🥺 my 🥺 jar 🥺 of 🥺 minced 🥺 garlic 🥺 be 🥺 opened 🥺 by 🥺 the 🥺 end 🥺 of 🥺 the 🥺 month 🥺 🙏🙏🙏YESṀ20
- Will Stable Diffusion have more Google Trends search interest than DALL-E, at the end of October?YESṀ10
80%
- Will @Sinclair perform with Bayesian Choir at winter solstice 2022YESṀ100
- A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022YESṀ100
- Will Manifold stop forgetting how I customized my home page this week?NOṀ100
- Edit profile page should be restyled now that DaisyUI is goneYESṀ100
- Will two people who never kissed before kiss at the manifold party?YESṀ100
- Will any guests at the Manifold party play a game of Gravity Chess?YESṀ100
- Will Sinclair fulfill her promise to not cuddle _ in Feb?YESṀ100
- Will two people who never kissed before kiss at the manifold party?YESṀ80
- Will two people who never kissed before kiss at the manifold party?YESṀ50
- Will evidence emerge that Kalshi is at least partially responsible for PredictIt losing CFTC approval?NOṀ50
90%
- Will we eat pizza at the manifold party?NOṀ300
- Will there be enough people for more than three factions in my petrov day game?YESṀ200
- Will anybody I hadn't met personally before the party complain loudly about how fat I am to other guests while I am within earshot?YESṀ100
- Will the Manifold API return min, max, isLogScale by market close?YESṀ100
- Will any user-initiated Manifold meetup exceed 10 attendees?YESṀ100
- Will at least three songs from the attached "predictions playlist" be played at the party?YESṀ100
- Will a second pair of people who have never met before the party kiss?NOṀ100
- Will Sinclair fulfill her promise to not cuddle _ in Feb?YESṀ100
- Will Manifold fix the regression causing <CTRL+ENTER> to no longer submit a comment by close?YESṀ100
- Will a second pair of people who have never met before the party kiss?NOṀ50
95%
- Will Sinclair fulfill her promise to not cuddle _ in Feb?YESṀ500
- Will Sinclair fulfill her promise to not cuddle _ in Feb?YESṀ500
- Will the Manifold API return min, max, isLogScale by market close?YESṀ300
- Will I attend EAG DC?YESṀ225
- Will there be enough people for more than three factions in my petrov day game?YESṀ200
- Will Arbitrum airdrop a native token before March 31, 2023?YESṀ100
- [planecrash] Gur pbairefngvba orgjrra Xrygunz naq gur cvg svryq jnf n cresbeznapr sbe NoebtnvyYESṀ100
- Will Pope Francis still be Pope on Jan. 1st, 2023?YESṀ80
- In February of 2023, will it still be possible to get ChatGPT to say "I love racism"?YESṀ10
- Will SBF be federally indicted by the end of 2022?YESṀ10
97%
- Will Lex Fridman mention Manifold Markets in an episode of his podcast this year?YESṀ1,000
- Will anyone go on a date b/c of a Manifold date doc by March 1st?YESṀ1,000
- Will Starlink continue to be available to Ukrainian forces to the end of 2022?YESṀ700
- Will there be >50 deaths in the current monkeypox outbreak?(in 2022)YESṀ400
- In the UK, will there be over 20 confirmed cases of Monkey Pox by July?YESṀ100
- Will Manifold do something for April Fool's Day 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Manifold do something for April Fool's Day 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Manifold do something for April Fool's Day 2023?YESṀ100
- Will anyone brave sitting on the sketchy tree swing in the backyard?YESṀ100
- Will Mateusz Morawiecki stay Prime Minister of Poland through 2022?YESṀ10
99%
- Will Manifold guess the character I am thinking of?YESṀ5,000
- Will Manifold support spoiler tags by the end of March 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will any guests at the Manifold party play a game of Gravity Chess?YESṀ1,000
- Will Pope Francis still be Pope on Jan. 1st, 2023?YESṀ800
- Will Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive at the end of the year?YESṀ400
- Will Elon Musk still be Tesla's CEO through the end of 2022?YESṀ10