Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Chinese national football team competes in the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Background:

As of April 2025, China's national football team faces significant challenges in qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the third round of the Asian qualifiers, China has struggled, including a 7-0 defeat to Japan in September 2024 (sportstar.thehindu.com) and a 2-0 loss to Australia in March 2025 (reuters.com). These results have placed China at the bottom of Group C, making their path to the World Cup increasingly difficult.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, to be held in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will feature an expanded format with 48 teams. Asia has been allocated eight guaranteed spots, with the possibility of a ninth through an intercontinental playoff. To reach the semi-finals, China would first need to qualify for the tournament and then advance through the group stage and knockout rounds, a feat they have yet to achieve in their football history.