A man has reportedly set himself on fire outside the court where Donald Trump’s criminal trial is taking place:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/19/trump-trial-person-fire
There is already speculation as to whether he did so in support of Donald Trump, in opposition to him or for an unrelated reason.
Will it emerge that he was pro-Trump, anti-Trump or neither?
If it’s not possible to make a judgement by the end of April based on the publicly available information about him, this will resolve to the “neither/neutral” option.
Since the resolution may end up being partially subjective, I will not trade on this market.
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There is clear evidence that the man was anti-Trump (even if the protest itself wasn’t anti-Trump, but that wasn’t the question) and no good argument to suggest that he wasn’t.
So this market resolves to anti-Trump!
@SimonGrayson I appreciate your fair mindedness. I’ll just observe that setting himself on fire didn’t achieve his goals if the takeaway ends up “Wow more Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
This looks pretty conclusive for the anti-Trump position:
https://twitter.com/neevastephen/status/1781582703655342282
Saying that Trump is about to "fascist coup us"seems unambiguously anti-Trump, even if he's anti-Biden as well!
Since "neither" is trading so high, would anyone who's got a position on the other side like to make a counter-argument to this before I resolve to anti-Trump?
@SimonGrayson Mr. Azzarello left a tract that elaborated his concerns. He mentioned Trump four times: twice to identify where and when he set himself on fire, twice to emphasize that the problem he tried to describe is distributed across US Parties. He voiced despair at reactions of partisanship. This communicated his hope to NOT be interpreted as acting in a partisan effort.
@TracyHarms I agree that he's not anti-Trump in a partisan, pro-Bide or pro-Democrat sense, but it's possible for him to be anti-politician general and then express that he's anti-Trump in particular!
@SimonGrayson Perhaps I misunderstood the question. I thought it was asking whether his suicide was meant to communicate his opposition to Trump or to something not specific to Trump. The answer is clearly “not specific to Trump.”
@SimonGrayson I mean while it is anti Trump it’s also anti Biden. He’s against the establishment. It seems fair to me to resolve yes to anti Trump and neither tbh.
@SimonGrayson Being against the coup isn’t the same as personal animus toward the people behind it. And he didn’t set himself on fire to encourage people to participate in the democratic process or take a side in the election.
@SimonGrayson If you read his Substack, he specifically names Trump repeatedly as being part of a kleptocracy he wants to start a revolution against.
@Marnix Yeah - what's out there so far definitely suggests it's some conspiracy stuff which has nothing at all to do with Trump!
I'll give it a day or two to see if something comes out which suggests he's actually pro-Trump or anti-Trump, but with what's out there at the moment this would resolve to the "neither" option without any further evidence!
@SimonGrayson https://x.com/neevastephen/status/1781582703655342282?s=46&t=UJP2QQFpfK_Fn9l02l93Ng This was a day before the incident. Definitely enough to close the market lol.
@KwameOsei Yeah, that one looks pretty conclusive. I'm going to post it as a top-level comment in case anyone holding the opposite position has a counterargument!
@SimonGrayson The Neeva Stephen tweet is biased opinion of a third party, not information on M.A.’s motives.
@TracyHarms To be clear - I was only talking about the photo in that Tweet, not the wording of the Tweet itself. Is there any doubt that the photo is real or that the man in the photo is someone else?
@TracyHarms The tweet is immaterial, the photo is from the day before he self immolated. He was indisputably anti Trump.