Champions League Semi Finals - which team will have the biggest winning margin?
resolved May 8
Bayern Munich
Real Madrid

There are 4 teams remaining in the 2023/4 Champions League. The next stage is the semi finals.

Each tie will be played over two legs, with the first leg being played on 30th April and 1st May and the second leg being played on 7th/8th May.

Which of the 4 teams will have the biggest winning margin over the two legs?

Market notes:

  • This will only count the winning margin in terms of goals without using away goals or any other kid of tie breaker. So a team who scores 10 and concedes 5 will be considered the same as a team who scores 5 and concedes 0.

  • The market is only considering the overall margin across two legs rather than the results of the individual matches. So a team who loses 1-0 and then wins 6-0 has the same five goal winning margin as a team who won their games 2-0 and 3-0.

  • If both semi-finals see the same winning margin, the market will resolve 50/50 to each of the two winners.

  • Extra time and penalty shootouts aren't relevant to this market since a game only goes to extra time and penalties if it is tied after two legs.

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Dortmund won by 2 goals over two legs.

Madrid won by 1 goal over two legs.

This market resolves to Borussia Dortmund!

@SimonGrayson can resolve to Dortmund

bought Ṁ500 Dortmund YES


So if both ties go to extra time then the 4 teams each resolve at 25% being equal even if one match is decided by a single penalty whereas the other has a 5 goal difference in extra time?

@ChristopherRandles Yes - according to the rules as I wrote them, if both games go to extra time, no one had a winning margin above zero so it resolves 25/25/25/25.

I wrote the rules like that for the rounds with more than two games and it was meant to be more about saying that winning by one goal in normal time is better than winning by multiple goals in extra time… I should probably rewrite them for future tournaments!