Champions League 2023/4 - Who will qualify from Group A (Bayern Munich, Man Utd, Copenhagen, Galatasaray)?
154
1.3K
3.5K
resolved Dec 12
50%50%
Bayern Munich
50%50%
FC Copenhagen
0.1%
Manchester United
0.1%
Galatasaray

The Champions League group stages start on the week of 19th/20th September and run until the week of 12th/13th December.

There are four teams in each group. They each play each other twice, and at the end of the six matchdays, the top two teams qualify for the knockout stages.

Which two teams will qualify? The market will resolve as 50% to each of the two teams.

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bought Ṁ20,000 of Manchester United NO

Resolves to Bayern Munich and Copenhagen.

These markets resolve to 50% for each of the two qualifying teams. In future, it will probably make sense for markets like this to be unlinked markets where each team can resolve to 100% - but those kind of unlinked markets didn't exist when I created this year's group stage markets back in September!

bought Ṁ200 of FC Copenhagen YES

@SimonGrayson Du you mind resolving, seeing as all matches have been played? 🙂

What does it mean that the market will resolve as 50% to each of the qualified teams? Can you give an example of how that works? (Sorry, I'm new🙂)

@kapperud There are two winners to the market - the two teams who go through from the group.

So let's say Bayern Munich and Manchester United go through. They each resolve to 50% (rather than 100%) meaning that you get half of the Mana that you would win on them if they were the only winner and resolved to 100%.

Meanwhile, Galatasaray and Copenhagen would resolve to 0% meaning that you would lose any Mana you bet on them going through.

@SimonGrayson This means that you should never bet a team up past 50% - any further bets you make to take them higher than that are guaranteed losers as they can't resolve any higher than 50%!

@SimonGrayson Thanks for the explanation! So if a team is above 50% and you buy No shares to get it back to 50, then you're guaranteed a profit?

@kapperud Yes you are!

bought Ṁ20 of Manchester United YES

@SimonGrayson Cool, thanks!

@SimonGrayson - if you buy "No" and Bayern qualifies then you'll receive no payout whatsoever rather than guaranteed profit, irrespective of the percentage you bought at, no?

@tb25 The way I understand it (OP can correct me if I'm wrong), if you buy No and it says "Payout if No: X mana", then you will recieve X mana if the team doesn't qualify,  and X/2 mana if the team does qualify. Conversely, if you buy Yes and it says "Payout if Yes: Y mana", then you will recieve Y/2 mana if the team qualifies, and nothing if the team doesn't qualify.

@tb25 No, if a market or selection resolves to 50% then anyone betting NO above 50% will get a profit and anyone betting NO at something like 49% will get most of their Mana back for a small loss.

(Unless I’ve misunderstood anything!)

@SimonGrayson there's only a total of 100%
There's only a total of 100% to give away for each type of share (i.e. 100% total for YES; 100% total for NO). As per your example above where Bayern and United go through, the distribution for YES will be:

Bayern YES shares resolve at 50%

United YES shares resolve at 50%

Copenhagen YES shares resolve at 0%

Gala YES shares resolve at 0%

This implies the following resolution for NO:

Bayern NO shares resolve at 0%

United NO shares resolve at 0%

Copenhagen NO shares resolve at 50%

Gala NO shares resolve at 50%

....in other words: everyone buying NO on Bayern right now is throwing away their money: Bayern already has enough points to go through and so is guaranteed to resolve at 50% YES, 0% NO.

@tb25 I don’t think that’s right at all.

Using the maths from your example, there’s effectively 300% worth of NO resolutions (the total number of options minus one). So NO shares in the losers resolve to 100% and NO shares in the winners resolve to 0%.

We can set up a test market to give examples if you like?

@SimonGrayson when market resolves to 50%, both YES and NO resolve to 50%. If I buy NO at 54%, I get 4% profit. That's why you'll see limit orders around either side of the correct answer. You make small appreciations, but appreciations nonetheless.

The problem with @tb25 's analysis is that shares (YES/NO) are not untied but rather tied. Selling YES is buying NO. Shares can be redeemed by buying in the opposite direction, or by selling.

@SimonGrayson yes, let's do a test market. I may not be explaining myself well or I may be misunderstanding how Manifold works. Test market should make it clear - thanks for helping to clarify.

@tb25 I don't think there's a rule that multiple choice-questions have to resolve so that they sum to 100% Yes and 100% No? E.g. if you make a multiple choice-question for who will win Ballon D'or next year, then most options will resolve to 100% No, and the sum of No's will therefore be more than 100%

@kapperud / @firstuserhere / @SimonGrayson

Thanks, I think I now understood - trying in my own words: given that there are 4 options, there is a total of 400% to distribute across the 4 options. 100% for YES, 300% for NO.

So assuming Bayern and United qualify, payouts for YES will be a total of 100%:

Bayern YES shares resolve at 50%

United YES shares resolve at 50%

Copenhagen YES shares resolve at 0%

Gala YES shares resolve at 0%

And payouts for NO will be a total of 300%:

Bayern NO shares resolve at 50%

United NO shares resolve at 50%

Copenhagen NO shares resolve at 100%

Gala NO shares resolve at 100%

Please let me know if I'm still off somewhere.

@tb25 I think you're right that that will be the payout if @SimonGrayson resolves each qualified team to 50%. But I don't think there's a rule that the Yes's have to sum to 100% either. There are many MC-questions out there with potentially multiple correct answers (e.g. "Who will qualify for the next Republican primary debate"), so that the sum of Yes's will be more than 100%. So I don't think there's any reason why this question can't resolve so that both qualified teams get 100% Yes. Except, of course, that OP has already announced that it won't. Assuming that OP will resolve to 50% rather than 100%, I think a good way of thinking about it is to normalize your probabilities to a scale of 0 to 50 instead of 0 to 100. E.g. if you think the probability of Bayern qualifying is 100% (which it is at this point), then you should buy shares to make the prob be 50% rather than 100%, and if you think the probability of Man Utd qualifying is 60%, then you should buy shares to make the prob be 30% rather than 60%.

@kapperud For this market, the automated market maker is enforcing a 100% total probability, so it will require Simon's resolution to assign a total of 1 mana per share to YES and 3 mana per share to NO (across the 4 options).

@travis Ah, okay. Thanks for clearing that up!

bought Ṁ10 of Bayern Munich YES

      Bayern Munich:

Participated in the group stage 27 times.

Successfully qualified from the group stage 25 times.

Approximate qualification success rate: 93%.

 

Manchester United:

Participated in the group stage 25 times.

Successfully qualified from the group stage 19 times.

Approximate qualification success rate: 76%.

 

Galatasaray:

Participated in the group stage 17 times.

Successfully qualified from the group stage 3 times.

Approximate qualification success rate: 18%.

 

Copenhagen:

Participated in the group stage 6 times.

Successfully qualified from the group stage 1 time.

Approximate qualification success rate: 17%.

Looking at the Market Values of the teams, Bayern Munich has 948.15 Mio (source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/fc-bayern-munchen/startseite/verein/27), Manchester United has 877.30 Mio. (source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/manchester-united/startseite/verein/985), Copenhagen has 66.35 Mio. (source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/fc-kopenhagen/startseite/verein/190) and Galatasaray has 236.58 Mio. (source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/galatasaray-istanbul/startseite/verein/141) which clearly indicates a favor of Bayern Munich and Man Utd. passing towards the next stage of the tournament. However, looking at the current standings, Man Utd. finds themselves in last place with only 3 points after4 of the 6 matchdays making their qualifying harder. However, with Copenhagen and Galatasaray also only having 4 points, they could still manage to pass them and finish second of the group. Still, Bayern Munich scored 12 points already and due to the little points of the other team, they have already secured their qualification.

bought Ṁ10 of Manchester United YES

Bayern have won all their games in the group and will need to win only one more of their three remaining matches to guarantee qualification.

Acquiring Rasmus Hojlund for £72 million for Manchester United represents a significant investment in a promising young striker. Hojlund has the potential to contribute 20-25 goals in all competitions, potentially bridging the goal-scoring gap at United. He scored 12 goals in 21 games across all competitions during the remainder of the 2021–22 season and the start of the 2022–23 season. If United get 10 points, they'll most certainly qualify. This will only need two wins against Copenhagen and Galatasaray while avoiding defeat against Bayern at Old Trafford; nine points could also be enough if Galatasaray fails to find six points from their remaining two games. Galatasaray recently lost 3-1 to Baryern and will likely lose the return leg.

In recent history, Man Utd has played Copenhagen twice, winning both games, scoring four goals, and Copenhagen scoring none. United is also expected to win at Galatasaray, given that before their last match, united had won 1-0, 1-0, and 4-0 in their previous meetings with Galatasaray. Man Utd has won all their last two games in the premier league against Brentford and Sheffield.

Bayern Munich and Manchester United are traditionally strong teams and are expected to qualify from Group A. However, football can be unpredictable, and both Copenhagen and Galatasaray might surprise with their performances.