Simon Grayson's calibration
Grade: A+, Score: -0.1
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Simon Grayson bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" be the highest grossing movie of 2023?NOṀ200
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election (Boris Johnson's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat?YESṀ120
- Will the U.K. Conservative Party lose at least three parliamentary seats in by-elections in 2023?YESṀ100
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%