Simon Grayson's calibration
Grade: A+, Score: -0.09
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Simon Grayson bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
- Will enough Tory MPs sign letters of no confidence to meet the typical threshold for a no confidence vote by June?NOṀ150
- UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is below 10 points?NOṀ100
- Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 160 seats at the next UK general election?NOṀ100
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Conservative Party win fewer than 165 seats at the next General Election? (their worst performance since 1906)YESṀ350
70%
- Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%?YESṀ2,000
- Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%?YESṀ1,000
- Will Manchester City win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final?NOṀ400
80%
- Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%?YESṀ1,000
- Will Esteban Ocon drive for Alpine at the 2024 Canadian GP?YESṀ500
90%
95%
97%