Simon Grayson's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.5
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Simon Grayson bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ50
- F1 - Will Sunday's Emilia Romagna Grand Prix (Imola) be cancelled?YESṀ30
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ30
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%