Siao's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.4
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Siao bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will I see substantial improvement to my life within a month of starting Methylphenidate for ADHD (Read description)YESṀ20
- Will ContraPoints next video be over an hour long?YESṀ10
- If Slime Mold Time Mold conclude a positive result from their potassium study, will Natalia completely annihilate their analysis within 6 months?YESṀ10
70%
80%
90%