Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Ethereum (ETH) trades at or above $3,500 USD at 12:00 UTC on January 20, 2026. Resolution will be determined by checking the price on major cryptocurrency exchanges at the specified time. Acceptable sources for verification include CoinDesk, CoinMarketCap, or Yahoo Finance. If prices vary across exchanges, the resolution will use the volume-weighted average price across major trading pairs (ETH/USD on Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken). The market resolves NO if the price is below $3,500 at that time.

Background

As of January 18, 2026, Ethereum was trading at $3,316.32 USD, placing it approximately $184 below the $3,500 threshold. Ethereum reached its all-time high of $4,946.50 on August 24, 2025, but has since experienced volatility. Since the beginning of 2026, Ethereum has been trading between $2,808.46 and $3,584.03, indicating the $3,500 level is within the recent trading range.

Considerations

Ethereum has been displaying low volatility recently with a 1-month volatility of 4.33, suggesting moderate price swings are possible within the 24-hour window. Multiple analyst forecasts show mixed near-term expectations: one forecast indicates ETH will reach $3,400.88 by January 21, 2026, while another predicts $3,660.02 by January 23, 2026, representing a 10.39% increase. The resolution time of 12:00 UTC on January 20 falls within a period where technical analysts are watching key resistance levels around $3,300–$3,500.