# Shump's calibration

Grade: A+, Score: -0.11

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Shump bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

1%

3%

5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

97%

- Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate nationally the day before the Iowa caucuses?YESṀ5,000
- Will there be any layoff of over 1000+ employees at any Big Tech company (Big Five) before March 1st, 2024?YESṀ3,000
- Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Blue Monday 2024? (Jan 15)YESṀ3,000