Shump's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.31
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Shump bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)YESṀ10,000
- Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: African National Congress loses its majority in the South African National AssemblyYESṀ5,000
- Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate nationally the day before the Iowa caucuses?YESṀ5,000