Will someone Loot Box their way into this market before July 2023?
25
517
430
resolved Jun 16
Resolved
YES

Loot boxes don't show up as a trades in the market. This market only resolves YES if there is a holder who has never traded in the market, this will be checked using the API.

This market closes at the end of June 2023.

UPDATE: loot boxes now show up as a trade in the market.

This Market Resolves YES if there is a loot box trade in the market history.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ5,559 of YES

Although the market description does not say the market would resolve early, since the market resolution known and cannot change, it seems no one should object to an early resolution.

predicted YES
predicted YES

Please resolve

What’s a loot box?

bought Ṁ1 of YES
boughtṀ6YES

This market resolves YES.

predicted YES

@ShitakiIntaki Honestly don't know why the market was so low. And why I didn't buy more :'(

@AlexbGoode loot boxes are very niche, and I figured most that would be sold, had been

sold Ṁ0 of NO

@Fedor Same. The expected value of a lootbox is negative, though I guess that's not stated anywhere before you buy one unless you go looking for info about them. And with SG's markets about them concluded, I didn't expect them to continue being popular.

Now it looks like it's happened twice. I wonder what the odds of that were.

predicted YES

@whenhaveiever There might be some interest vector and possibly some weighting by market activity. For example I don't think you will loot box into a new market with no traders.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

If loot boxes are fully random, there's a 50/50 chance the person would be given NO shares. If they do nothing at that point, it resolves YES and their shares are worthless, so they have incentive to either sell their shares or buy more NO shares to disqualify themselves as holders-who-have-never-traded.

predicted NO

@whenhaveiever updated resolution criteria now that loot box shares show up in the trade history for the market