Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially extends the promotional access or permanently includes Claude Fable 5 as part of the standard $200/month Claude Max subscription plan limits (such that users can access the model drawing from their plan's standard weekly limits or allowance, even if capped, without requiring separate pay-as-you-go usage credits) for any duration past July 7, 2026.

This market resolves to NO if, after July 7, 2026 (11:59:59 PM PT):

• Fable 5 access is removed from standard Max subscription limits and is only available via metered "usage credits" (pay-as-you-go API-rate billing).

• Fable 5 is removed from standard Max plans entirely.

Notes and Edge Cases:

• Timezone / Transition Delays: The promotional period is officially scheduled to end on July 7, 2026, at 11:59:59 PM PT. Minor access delays or timezone differences (e.g., users still having access on July 8 due to delayed rollout of the billing switch) will not trigger a YES resolution unless there is an official extension or deliberate policy change.

• Primary Sources: Resolution will be determined using official Anthropic announcements (such as the Anthropic News Blog or @claudeai on X), supplemented by verified user reports of the billing UI on Claude.ai.

Background

When Anthropic redeployed its flagship model, Claude Fable 5, on July 1, 2026, after a brief export-control suspension, it offered a temporary promotional window. Subscribers on Pro, Max, Team, and select Enterprise plans were permitted to allocate up to 50% of their weekly message limits to Fable 5 at no extra cost.

According to Anthropic's documentation, this promotion ends at the close of July 7, 2026. From July 8 onward, Fable 5 is scheduled to transition to a metered "usage credits" model, where usage is billed on a pay-as-you-go basis at standard API rates ($10/million input tokens and $50/million output tokens) on top of the base subscription fee. While Anthropic engineers have indicated an intent to bring Fable 5 back to standard subscription tiers "as capacity allows" in the future, this market specifically tracks whether standard, subscription-included access on the Max plan will continue past the July 7 deadline.

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