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Seems like a funny time of year to make an announcement like this, surely a safe bet...

This sounds like they're positioning it as a major-ish title, but it is "only" 2D... https://supermariobroswonder.nintendo.com/

Super Mario Bros.™ Wonder for Nintendo Switch™ – Official Site

Watch the trailer and learn more about the Super Mario Bros.™ Wonder game for the Nintendo Switch™ system.

@NLeseul This is a bit of a judgement call, but it looks significantly smaller than Odyssey (or Galaxy), so I'm going to call this as not counting

I think they'll announce it with the next console like @Kronopath said. I have a relevant market to share: https://manifold.markets/sacredSatan/will-nintendo-release-their-next-co

Assuming you mean 3D Mario games, I think they’d be unlikely to release one unless it’s alongside new hardware, and new hardware in 2023 is looking pretty unlikely.

@Kronopath Note that this only requires announcement, not an actual release (they could in principle announce new hardware+games in December scheduled for next year.

I’m aware, but I suspect it’s unlikely that they announce it before the Christmas shopping season if it’s not planned to be available for purchase by then.

https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/21/nintendo-working-on-new-super-mario-game-confirms-shigeru-miyamoto-18321020/
Not saying it should resolve right now, but... be advised.

@EzraSchott seems unclear what the schedule would be though? Taking the article at face value, there's still no implication the game would be ready for announcement this year.

What about a major DLC expansion for Odyssey?

@Quate if it's big enough to qualify as its own similarly sized game (like Warcraft TFT) it'd count. If it's more like the fe3h or botw DLCs then now.

What about a main series 2D mario game?

@EzraSchott I don't think so, but also don't really see that happening? It would have to be a on the order of magnitude of odyssey in terms of game size/resources put into making it/relative sales to count.

What if it’s on the order of NSMBU?

I’d recommend just making the description either explicitly include or explicitly exclude mainline 2D Mario games.

Welp. Now Nintendo has announced a new 2D Mario game, and you’re in the exact position I warned you about.

This market is now going to hinge not on whether Nintendo releases a new mainline Mario game, but instead on what you choose to end up defining as a “mainline” Mario game ex post facto. underspecified resolution criteria is making this market way less useful for actual prediction.

I’m bailing from this market and taking a small loss. I still maintain that Nintendo is unlikely to release a new 3D Mario game.