Will a new main series Mario game be announced in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Main series= odyssey, Galaxy, sunshine etc. Stuff like Mario Kart or paper Mario doesn't count.

(A 2d game would almost certainly not count unless it's actually similar in scope to oddysey)

(Note that this is announcement only - it still counts if it comes out in 2024+).

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Seems like a funny time of year to make an announcement like this, surely a safe bet...

bought Ṁ100 NO from 8% to 7%
predicted NO

@NLeseul This is a bit of a judgement call, but it looks significantly smaller than Odyssey (or Galaxy), so I'm going to call this as not counting

I think they'll announce it with the next console like @Kronopath said. I have a relevant market to share: https://manifold.markets/sacredSatan/will-nintendo-release-their-next-co

Assuming you mean 3D Mario games, I think they’d be unlikely to release one unless it’s alongside new hardware, and new hardware in 2023 is looking pretty unlikely.

@Kronopath Note that this only requires announcement, not an actual release (they could in principle announce new hardware+games in December scheduled for next year.

predicted NO

I’m aware, but I suspect it’s unlikely that they announce it before the Christmas shopping season if it’s not planned to be available for purchase by then.

@EzraSchott seems unclear what the schedule would be though? Taking the article at face value, there's still no implication the game would be ready for announcement this year.

What about a major DLC expansion for Odyssey?

@Quate if it's big enough to qualify as its own similarly sized game (like Warcraft TFT) it'd count. If it's more like the fe3h or botw DLCs then now.

What about a main series 2D mario game?

@EzraSchott I don't think so, but also don't really see that happening? It would have to be a on the order of magnitude of odyssey in terms of game size/resources put into making it/relative sales to count.

What if it’s on the order of NSMBU?

I’d recommend just making the description either explicitly include or explicitly exclude mainline 2D Mario games.

Welp. Now Nintendo has announced a new 2D Mario game, and you’re in the exact position I warned you about.

This market is now going to hinge not on whether Nintendo releases a new mainline Mario game, but instead on what you choose to end up defining as a “mainline” Mario game ex post facto. underspecified resolution criteria is making this market way less useful for actual prediction.

I’m bailing from this market and taking a small loss. I still maintain that Nintendo is unlikely to release a new 3D Mario game.