Will Google Gemini's parameter count be public?
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2026
60%
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Google recently announced their new model PaLM 2. They also said that they are working on a model called Gemini, which is suspected to rival GPT-4.

Will its parameter count be public within 6 months of its public release?
Credible reporting must be corroborated by Google.

"Public release" is defined as the point at which Google is selling/providing any new model they call Gemini, either with an application/waitlist or to anyone.

Resolves YES if:
- We know the parameter count of all versions of Google Gemini within 6 months of its public release.
- Within 6 months of its public release, Google announces that they will reveal the parameter count at a future date.

Resolves 50% if:
- Google has multiple, different size models that they refer to as Gemini (like with PaLM 2, which has Gecko, Otter, Bison, Unicorn) and we know the parameter count of at least one, but not all of them.

Resolves NO if:
- There is speculation on its parameter count, but nothing has been confirmed 6 months after Gemini's public release, and Google has not said they will reveal it.

Resolves N/A if:
- Google Gemini is not publicly released by the end of 2025 (11:59 PM UTC)
- For any reason, it is unclear if a model with a public parameter count is Google Gemini or not.

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Update: Gemini release date - DEC 13, 2023

Market resolve date: JUNE 13, 2024

I'm curious to see whether they will release more info, so I opened this market

bought Ṁ100 of YES

A technical report for Gemini has been released and they say parameter count of some of the models: Nano-1 has 1.8B parameters and Nano-2 has 3.25B parameters. They do not say the parameter count of the Ultra or Pro models.

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