Will there be significant racial depolarization in the 2024 election?
17
56
380
2025
69%
chance

In 2020, the CNN exit poll gave Trump +17 for white voters and Biden +45 for nonwhite voters. That would be a value of 62 for racial polarization. Fox's exit had a value of 60.

If the mean of exit poll racial polarization from Fox and CNN is less than 55, this will resolve Yes.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Err, could there be issues with the classification of Hispanic voters? By "white" you mean non-Hispanic white, and "nonwhite" includes White Hispanic, right? As far as I understand these polls are White/Hispanic/Black/Asian/Other, pick at most one of the above.

@nathanwei cnn asks "white voters" or "voters of color". Fox asks white vs non-white. Self ID I presume.

@SemioticRivalry Oh god that complicates things quite a lot, because once someone showed me some statistics Hispanics are more likely to self-ID as white when voting Republican. So some Hispanic guy will say he is non-White and vote for a Democrat, and in the next election will say he is White and vote for a Republican. Think about a Hispanic cop who is genetically a mix of European and Native American and moved to the right after 2020.

bought Ṁ10 YES

(duplicate comment by accident)