Will there be a House vote on the Senate-passed Ukraine aid bill in April?
resolved Apr 20

Specifically the Senate passed version, or something substantially similar to it. There is another Ukraine aid bill that's floating around the House which is structured as a loan, that one will not count.

McCaul says Johnson will put a bill on the floor after the recess but didn't specify which bill.


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bought Ṁ2,000 YES

@SemioticRivalry resolves YES, there was just a vote on it and it passed

bought Ṁ10 NO

Betting NO because GOP is cray cray

IMO, the version that Johnson is putting up is substantially similar to the Senate version. If it receives a vote, this will resolve yes.

sold Ṁ84 YES

nvm. I see the "something substantially similar to it" now.

I had this completely in my brain as "discharge only". Lucked out...

@SemioticRivalry Disagree that this is substantially similar to the Senate bill. First, in order to get anything even close to the Senate bill, you need to piece together 3 of the 4 separate bills that the Speaker recently announced. And second, the House Ukraine aid bill structures $9 billion of aid as a loan.

@AlexMennen Yeah, agree for sure, N/A is the right choice here. Vague things like "substantially similar" are very problematic because it allows so much wiggle room to resolve it however the creator wants to.

I encourage folks to use Metaculus markets as templates as they have some very well written markets such that vagueness and wiggle room occurs much less often. The problem though is their site is not transparent like Manifold, which is much more important, imho.

The criteria was clear from the beginning. If you don't like subjective markets, don't bet on them.

@SemioticRivalry A fair point, but I missed the 'subjective' phrase in this market. It's not trivial determining which markets are subjective and which are not.

@SemioticRivalry The criteria specifically said that the loan proposal being floated would not count.

If you look at this article published at approximately the time this market was created: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4545430-ukraine-aid-loan-democrats/

The wide belief is that of the $60 billion bookmarked in aid for Ukraine, only $12 billion is slated to be handed over to Kyiv directly, while the other $48 billion would go into the U.S. industrial complex for weapons. It’s that $12 billion that Republicans are eyeing for loans.

The bill getting a vote, and the earlier loan proposal that you said would not count, structure a similar amount of the aid as loan.

@AlexMennen I apologize if you feel misled. When I wrote this market, I had heard proposals that would convert essentially the entirety of the aid into a loan which would also be smaller in magnitude than ~60b, which IMO is a far cry from where we ended up, an aid bill with an essentially fake loan that will very likely be waived and repossession of Russian assets. At the end of the day, this is a subjective market and there will always be edge cases that are difficult to deal with, but in my view the House bill is very similar to the Senate version.

@SemioticRivalry Do you have a source for such a proposal?

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