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Not that I expect this to resolve any other way, but there is still a perfunctory recount being conducted.

“With such a narrow victory, the Ballot Measure 2 contest is likely headed to a recount before the state officially certifies the results of the Nov. 5 general election.”

https://alaskawatchman.com/2024/11/20/effort-to-repeal-alaskas-ranked-choice-voting-fails/

NO wins by about 600 votes

@mndrix wow, so it was enough of a swing to switch it to yes! Just in the other direction! I'll take my good judgement and my no mana and go weep

"No" now has a margin of only 45 votes:
https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2024/11/20/ranked-choice-voting-repeal-margin-shrinks-45-votes/

cinyc's latest estimate has RCV surviving by ~1,700 votes

No is now leading by about 200 votes out of 300k, incredible stuff

Apparently there's an automatic recount if it's within 0.5%, which is virtually guaranteed to happen. I figure that makes it a coin toss, the noise in the first 99% of the vote has to overwhelm the "no" lean of the last thousand voters or whatever it is

@JTBooth Recounts rarely change more than a dozen votes or so, it’s more of a procedure thing than anything.

@HenryRodgers well, I hope your take is weaker than my fifteen seconds of googling, for the sake of all my Yes 😭

@JTBooth It's possible! But I'd say maybe 1% of recounts, if not fewer, change the margin by more than 100 votes.

Currently 50.14 to 49.86 with 95%+ reporting, per source in the link

@JTBooth what's left is ~9k votes that are mostly from areas that are voting for no. looks razor close to me!

@HenryRodgers Nostradamus?

Why only 31%? Are there polls about this?

@Snarflak systematic bias towards 'no' in ballot measures is pretty strong