Will Erie County, Pennsylvania correctly pick the winner of the Presidential Election?
3
12
160
2025
60%
chance

I think this is the closest thing we have to a bellwether county in a bellwether state for the Presidential election. All in fairly close races, Trump won it in 2016, Toomey won it in 2016, Biden won it in 2020, Fetterman won it in 2022.

Resolves yes if the candidate that gets the most votes in Erie County also wins the Presidential Election.

If somehow there is an exact tie in the county vote total, will resolve 50/50.

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