Is @Mira Gwern Branwen?
13
328Ṁ1630
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

I'm pretty sure she's not, (for starters, I'm pretty sure they're not the same gender) but she did resolve this question N/A and they have similar vibes.

For those unfamiliar, Gwern is the excellent and incredibly prolific writer behind Gwern.net . Probably my favorite work is "The Scaling Hypothesis."

Resolves based on my appraisal of the available evidence as of the close date. As this market is subjective, I will not bet.

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I'm resolving NO at midnight EST unless you have any evidence for me to look at @Mira

Mira boughtṀ10YES

🤔

Ok Mira said she doesn't do drugs, can resolve No

Not the first time this has been asked :)

predictedYES

@firstuserhere Not the second time either.

@Mira Maybe this 3rd time is the charm, then?

predictedNO

I feel like it's plausible he's among us somewhere, even if it's not Mira.

I think gigacasting was Gwern.

@BTE there's no way lol, didn't gigacasting hate AI stuff? gwern writes constantly about AI

@SemioticRivalry Oh no not at all. He had very strong opinions about AI. Some people he had mad respect for others he thought were bullshit. I generally thought his AI takes were very smart. It was his political takes I abhorred.

predictedYES

Note that Mira resolved:

Mira is +-2 years the age of gwern (https://gwern.net/)

As YES. I don't see Gwern's age anywhere on the internet, so how does she know that?

@colorednoise I remember seeing Gwern's age on Hacker News or Quora or something a while ago, I think. I'm not going to say what it is in case I'm misremembering, though.

Resolves based on my appraisal of the available evidence as of the close date.

Will you be resolving to prob, or your best guess as to yes or no?

On the one hand, they both have active Twitters, and their writing style feels very very different.

On the other, there's a ton of evidence they're the same person, specifically, all the details I do know about both of them match

@colorednoise and Gwern is exactly the type of person to swap his entire style around when needed.

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