If Biden drops out, how will Polymarket price the presidential election 1 week later?
17
100Ṁ8374resolved Jul 28
100%23%
55-60% chance for Rs
0.8%
>60% chance for Ds
1.0%
55-60% chance for Ds
3%
50-55% chance for Ds
5%
50-55% chance for Rs
57%
60-65% chance for Rs
9%
65-70% chance for Rs
0.7%
>70% chance for Rs
Using the party market because it is cleaner with only two options. As of writing, the market says a 62.5% chance for Republicans.
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