If Biden drops out, how will Polymarket price the presidential election 1 week later?
Mini
12
8.3k
Sep 1
1.8%
>60% chance for Ds
3%
55-60% chance for Ds
13%
50-55% chance for Ds
12%
50-55% chance for Rs
51%
55-60% chance for Rs
15%
60-65% chance for Rs
2%
65-70% chance for Rs
1.5%
>70% chance for Rs

Using the party market because it is cleaner with only two options. As of writing, the market says a 62.5% chance for Republicans.

https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1719691644811

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