@EmmettShear could you please weigh in on this?

@FlorinSays We tried that

https://manifold.markets/topanter/will-emmett-shear-give-a-definitive?r=dG9wYW50ZXI

Hey all - please signal boost my question to OpenAI so we can get a real answer:

https://twitter.com/patrissimo/status/1730287067467264235

@patrissimo Given that functional markets incentivize leaks, and the relevant people didn't want to leak stuff at the time, I think there's a strong case to be made that they should not now try to make the market more functional and easy to resolve after the fact.

(I support this effort, just explaining why I think it might not work even if they do notice.)

No sign of a date

https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board

@shankypanky date is November 29, 2023, which is after the 27th. And Emmett gets a callout:

Thank you also to Emmett who had a key and constructive role in helping us reach this outcome. Emmett’s dedication to AI safety and balancing stakeholders’ interests was clear.

@topanter I'm aware the 29th is after the 27th? 😅

there's never been any specific mention that Emmett remains in the role while Sam was offered CEO in principle. Given Emmett tweeting a specific number of hours that he was CEO and the fact that no one can be certain that Sam was never "acting" CEO while holding an in-principle offer, I think none of this can be taken as absolute in either direction. It's all speculation.

I also regret betting on any of these Emmett markets because the back-and-forth has been so fruitless it's frustrating lol

@shankypanky This is absolutely frustrating and a total clown show by the former board

@shankypanky I agree this is not sufficient for a resolution in either direction.

@SemioticRivalry other markets have found it sufficient, why not this?

@topanter This news tells us that Sam is CEO today. What does that tell us about who was CEO at end-of-day, Nov 27th? Have other markets resolved about who was CEO on Nov 27th?

@chrisjbillington What announcement was made that Emmett was no longer CEO? Absent an announcement to that effect, and with the OpenAI press release specifically calling out Emmett, I think it’s reasonable to concur Emmett was CEO until the 29th.

I'm new here - how in god's name can I get away from notifications on this market/topic? 😅😬

@topanter The press release only places an upper bound on when Shear stopped being CEO - we know he's not CEO right now., It doesn't place a lower bound, it doesn't tell us when he stopped being CEO. Sometimes press releases discuss things that happened 48h prior. We don't know.

@chrisjbillington If you don’t know either way then resolve N/A.

@shankypanky

@chrisjbillington I disagree, this news tells us that Sam was NOT CEO yesterday. The only new information we have says:

"Message from Sam to the company

I am returning to OpenAI as CEO. Mira will rdeturn to her role as CTO. The new initial board will consist of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D’Angelo."

Everything is phrased in future tense, as if it is going to happen (agreement is reached) but the documents have not been signed and are not active yet. To me that clearly indicates Sam is NOT currently CEO. Whether Emmett got removed or stepped down earlier - we have no information on that, so it doesn't give us what we need, but this idea that Sam "became CEO" yesterday is absolutely wrong.

https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board

Find someone that loves you as much as Manifold traders love pretending Emmett Shear is still CEO.

Between this and the everlasting GM strike, y'all hallucinate more than ChatGPT does.

@Domer he might be! How come you're not betting, if you're that confident?

@chrisjbillington I bet in the other one that has better criteria. This seems like it is headed for N/A.

It seems like there's arbitrage here with https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-emmett-shear-be-ceo-of-openai, unless everyone with a Yes position is claiming that Emmett Shear was not CEO on Thanksgiving but is now, which seems quite unlikely.

from Shears wiki page, and below from openAI:

@Blomfilter

Altman and Brockman returned to the company in their prior roles along with a reconstructed board made up of new members Bret Taylor (as chairman) and Lawrence Summers, with D'Angelo remaining.[81]

Citation [81] is Sam Altman to return as CEO of OpenAI, from the Verge, which says:

Sam Altman will return as CEO of OpenAI, overcoming an attempted boardroom coup that sent the company into chaos over the past several days. Former president Greg Brockman, who quit in protest of Altman’s firing, will return as well.

The company said in a statement late Tuesday that it has an “agreement in principle” for Altman to return alongside a new board composed of Bret Taylor, Larry Summers, and Adam D’Angelo. D’Angelo is a holdover from the previous board that initially fired Altman on Friday. He remains on this new board to give the previous board some representation, we’re told.

• to return

• will return

• "agreement in principle" for Altman to return

I have no idea why Wikipedia has decided to forget what it means to have a job, or the difference between future tense and past tense. It's very strange. It is not that complicated an idea.

Is it plausible that the board dismissed Shear without appointing Altman? I wouldn't have thought so, but I am naive about such things.

@chrisjbillington Restated in the form of a market: