Emmett Shear still CEO by end of day 11/27?
resolved Dec 25

This resolves based on a definitive statement from a credible source that Shear was no longer CEO at any time between his assuming of the role and the end of the day 11/27, PST. I will not be resolving NO because of some tweets that seem to be half joking half serious. I expect that whenever Sam becomes CEO we will learn when Emmett was no longer CEO. If by the end of the year we still have no solid evidence, I'll consider an N/A.

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sold Ṁ458 of YES

Hi, I spoke to Emmett and he thinks we should cancel the market. First, in this market a user got in touch with him, and it seems to be just unspecified. I don't understand how there can't be an official answer based on hiring/firing paperwork, but this seems like an authoritative source.

I then DMed with Emmett myself, gave him the text of this market, and he says it is underspecified.

predicted YES

@patrissimo Well done getting a response!

@patrissimo thanks for this. I'll cancel the market

predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry it's hilarious that it is possible to not know whether you are CEO of a company.

Oh hey, maybe he does know - maybe he never was technically CEO so the question is a category error for that reason?

predicted YES

@patrissimo feels good to have this one closed in one way or another 😅

nice job staying the course on finding a definitive answer (even if that apparently means "no definitive answer"?)

weird response but I'll take it - well done 🧡

predicted NO

@EmmettShear could you please weigh in on this?

predicted YES

Hey all - please signal boost my question to OpenAI so we can get a real answer:


predicted NO

@patrissimo Given that functional markets incentivize leaks, and the relevant people didn't want to leak stuff at the time, I think there's a strong case to be made that they should not now try to make the market more functional and easy to resolve after the fact.

(I support this effort, just explaining why I think it might not work even if they do notice.)

predicted YES

@shankypanky date is November 29, 2023, which is after the 27th. And Emmett gets a callout:

Thank you also to Emmett who had a key and constructive role in helping us reach this outcome. Emmett’s dedication to AI safety and balancing stakeholders’ interests was clear.

predicted YES

@topanter I'm aware the 29th is after the 27th? 😅

there's never been any specific mention that Emmett remains in the role while Sam was offered CEO in principle. Given Emmett tweeting a specific number of hours that he was CEO and the fact that no one can be certain that Sam was never "acting" CEO while holding an in-principle offer, I think none of this can be taken as absolute in either direction. It's all speculation.

I also regret betting on any of these Emmett markets because the back-and-forth has been so fruitless it's frustrating lol

predicted YES

@shankypanky This is absolutely frustrating and a total clown show by the former board

@shankypanky I agree this is not sufficient for a resolution in either direction.

predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry other markets have found it sufficient, why not this?

sold Ṁ186 of YES

@topanter This news tells us that Sam is CEO today. What does that tell us about who was CEO at end-of-day, Nov 27th? Have other markets resolved about who was CEO on Nov 27th?

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington What announcement was made that Emmett was no longer CEO? Absent an announcement to that effect, and with the OpenAI press release specifically calling out Emmett, I think it’s reasonable to concur Emmett was CEO until the 29th.

predicted YES

I'm new here - how in god's name can I get away from notifications on this market/topic? 😅😬

@topanter The press release only places an upper bound on when Shear stopped being CEO - we know he's not CEO right now., It doesn't place a lower bound, it doesn't tell us when he stopped being CEO. Sometimes press releases discuss things that happened 48h prior. We don't know.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington If you don’t know either way then resolve N/A.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I disagree, this news tells us that Sam was NOT CEO yesterday. The only new information we have says:

"Message from Sam to the company

I am returning to OpenAI as CEO. Mira will rdeturn to her role as CTO. The new initial board will consist of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D’Angelo."

Everything is phrased in future tense, as if it is going to happen (agreement is reached) but the documents have not been signed and are not active yet. To me that clearly indicates Sam is NOT currently CEO. Whether Emmett got removed or stepped down earlier - we have no information on that, so it doesn't give us what we need, but this idea that Sam "became CEO" yesterday is absolutely wrong.


Find someone that loves you as much as Manifold traders love pretending Emmett Shear is still CEO.

Between this and the everlasting GM strike, y'all hallucinate more than ChatGPT does.

predicted YES

@Domer he might be! How come you're not betting, if you're that confident?

bought Ṁ5 YES at 47%

@chrisjbillington I bet in the other one that has better criteria. This seems like it is headed for N/A.