Selueen's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.92
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Selueen bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky give another interview similar to the one he gave for the Bankless Shows (ep. 159) in 2023?YESṀ10
- Will I have more than 50 followers when this market closes January 20thYESṀ10
- Will someone commit suicide as a result of instructions/recommendations/insults/suggestions from an AI chatbot by the end of 2024?YESṀ10