Selueen's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.7
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Selueen bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
50%
60%
- Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)YESโแน50
- Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)YESโแน10
- Will Murasaki Shion get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 12th March, 2023?YESโแน10
80%
95%
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky give another interview similar to the one he gave for the Bankless Shows (ep. 159) in 2023?YESโแน10
- Will I have more than 50 followers when this market closes January 20thYESโแน10
- Will someone commit suicide as a result of instructions/recommendations/insults/suggestions from an AI chatbot by the end of 2024?YESโแน10